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  #6346  
Old 09-04-2012, 07:16 PM
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Over the last few days I have observed that there are certain individuals who visit this thread for the sole objective of ridiculing and vilifying the very essence and purpose of this thread. The sole purpose of this thread is to help individuals better understand the wait times ahead.

This thread is by all means supportive of advocacy and HR3012 in fact any sane individual from a retrogressed country would be supportive of a bill like HR 3012 irrespective of belonging to EB2 or EB3. This is the only thread where time and again people have learnt about the true benefit of HR 3012 in terms of where dates would move for EB2 and EB3 India.

This is the second version of this thread and has already attracted 1.8 million visits the first one was retired after 5 million. You can imagine the power of this magnetic thread not only do the individuals benefit in the process but IV itself which is the sole beneficiary in terms of getting any benefits of page views (PS Ė I am compelled to say this because some individuals keep talking about it with a very negative connotation) and getting new individuals to the site out of which a select few would become volunteers and advocates.

On any forum typing in all caps, using large font or simply using demeaning language is against any form of decorum and courtesy expected of highly educated individuals. I can understand that it is important to motivate individuals however itís best to stick to the specific threads already running or that purpose, so its best to keep individual feelings / situation away in the interest of larger good for all. I hope the moderators would be fair to all, I do understand that they may be hard pressed for time. PS Ė Iam not a moderator even though my Id may show that.

Finally I would urge all to let the constructive discussion continue here and critique of methodology, predictions and calculations is very welcome in fact that has been the backbone of this thread. This thread is well beyond any individual itís a great medium that we have to help each other and share information to the benefit of everyone. So letís have the free flow of information going for the benefit of all.
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  #6347  
Old 09-04-2012, 07:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Over the last few days I have observed that there are certain individuals who visit this thread for the sole objective of ridiculing and vilifying the very essence and purpose of this thread. The sole purpose of this thread is to help individuals better understand the wait times ahead.

This thread is by all means supportive of advocacy and HR3012 in fact any sane individual from a retrogressed country would be supportive of a bill like HR 3012 irrespective of belonging to EB2 or EB3. This is the only thread where time and again people have learnt about the true benefit of HR 3012 in terms of where dates would move for EB2 and EB3 India.

This is the second version of this thread and has already attracted 1.8 million visits the first one was retired after 5 million. You can imagine the power of this magnetic thread not only do the individuals benefit in the process but IV itself which is the sole beneficiary in terms of getting any benefits of page views (PS Ė I am compelled to say this because some individuals keep talking about it with a very negative connotation) and getting new individuals to the site out of which a select few would become volunteers and advocates.

On any forum typing in all caps, using large font or simply using demeaning language is against any form of decorum and courtesy expected of highly educated individuals. I can understand that it is important to motivate individuals however itís best to stick to the specific threads already running or that purpose, so its best to keep individual feelings / situation away in the interest of larger good for all. I hope the moderators would be fair to all, I do understand that they may be hard pressed for time. PS Ė Iam not a moderator even though my Id may show that.

Finally I would urge all to let the constructive discussion continue here and critique of methodology, predictions and calculations is very welcome in fact that has been the backbone of this thread. This thread is well beyond any individual itís a great medium that we have to help each other and share information to the benefit of everyone. So letís have the free flow of information going for the benefit of all.
Thank you Teddy.
Everyone, please help keep the thread clean. We all need to behave in a mature manner. This thread's moderation has been one of the most difficult task.
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  #6348  
Old 09-05-2012, 07:38 AM
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From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal
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  #6349  
Old 09-05-2012, 08:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
I have read about some cases about EAD delay here on IV and elsewhere. I read the blog link that you posted, Iam not the author of that blog or remotely connected to it in anyway.
My personal take is a lot of this is fear psychosis; situation may not be all that bad. What you can do however is to file as early as possible so that you have maximum time and file online so that your application reaches in time. If still there is a delay best way is to follow up creating a SR or calling the 1800# etc best to escalate before time. If even that does not work contact / escalate via congressman / senator anything is better than losing oneís job.
I checked Immigrant in America think it is possible. There has not been any effort to recruit new people to handle all the undocumented kids cases (1.7 million) . So in a few months this will become a big issue for all of us trying to get EAD, H1B etc. I think there is a reason why everyone is quiet or speaking in a quiet tone about this problem. The 1.7 million application is a huge bonus for immigration professionals and they do not want to raise any flags and oppose it. Moreover extra delays mean more business.
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  #6350  
Old 09-05-2012, 09:39 AM
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83 people viewing this thread right now. How many of you are coming for the SUMMIT.

How many of you updated your signatures so that guests can get more information on SUMMIT?


How many of you called a friend and convinced them to attend the SUMMIT.


I have made 400 calls. How many did you make?


RIGHT NOW IV FOCUS IS SUMMIT. WE NEED ALL THREADS ON MAIN PAGE FOCUSED ON SUMMIT.




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Last edited by needhelp!; 09-05-2012 at 11:59 AM. Reason: summit
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  #6351  
Old 09-05-2012, 10:24 AM
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Btw , this issue does not affect me personally. So i can always focus my energies elsewhere. Thanks for allowing me to shout the truth so that people pretending to be deaf will feel the vibrations.
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  #6352  
Old 09-06-2012, 09:48 AM
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Dear Friends,

For too many years, we have seen visa bulletins month after month and year after year that do not move at all for 3 or 4 countries, mainly India, China, Mexico and Philippines. For too many years, we have seen that our colleagues with same education and skills, who were not born in India or China, are ready to take oath of citizenship, while we are still refreshing visa bulletins on first Friday of each month. Since 2005, the wait times for India and China, especially in EB3 category have been around 8-15 years, just because we were born in India and China. And others have leap-frogged ahead years ago just because they were born elsewhere. Since when did country of birth become a job skill?

If you feel that system needs change, then you need to show up for change.

Change will not come by hoping that others will show up. Change will not come by playing cricket and sitting around in social parties on Saturday discussing visa bulletins. Change will not come by praying for better visa bulletins. Members of Congress are not going to go door to door and ask if you have an issue that they can solve. They will wait for you to show up again and again. They will need to know that you are serious. And they will act on things only if they know for sure that you are serious about your own issue.

We are having Fairness and Freedom this Saturday, 8th September in downtown San Jose. We need to send a strong message to members of Congress in Washington DC that we have a very unfair system and we are asking them to do right by us by passing H.R. 3012. We are counting on every one of you to show up, especially the local residents who live in the Bay area. This is a family friendly event and maximum participation is encouraged, so please come with your family members. Click here to RSVP.

Event Schedule:

∑ 10 AM – 12 PM. Circle of palms Plaza in Downtown San Jose.

Address: 150 South Market Street, San Jose, CA.

Event details: H.R. 3012 bill update, Introductions, Registration, Live music band, Q&A with Immigration Voice core team members, collect your free Immigration Voice T-shirt.

∑ 12 PM to 1 PM: Small afternoon snack will be arranged. After this event, we walk to next event at San Jose Center for Performing Arts. It’s a short 10-12 minute walk. (0.3 miles).



∑ 1 PM to 4 PM. San Jose Center for performing arts.

Address: 255 Almaden Boulevard, San Jose, CA

Event details: National Anthem by Jessica Johnson, Welcome Address, Speech from Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, Q&A with Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren, Video address by Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Immigration Voice documentary on H.R. 3012, Panel discussion with Immigration and legislation experts, small comedy event, address to the crowd from Immigration Voice core team members, “God Bless America” by Jessica Johnson. The event will also be attended by high ranking official of DHS who overlooks immigration policy and also key industry entrepreneurs and leaders of high-tech community.

Please RSVP for this event as soon as possible if you are attending. Click here to RSVP.

Please plan to attend on time and bring your family with you. If you can bring your friends or colleagues who are also stuck in green-card waiting limbo, we would really appreciate it.

Stand up for yourself and your family. No one else will stand up for you. You have to do this for yourself.


Team IV
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  #6353  
Old 09-06-2012, 06:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krishmunn View Post
From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal
If I understand your post correct:

35K PERM approved similar to FY 2012.
i.e. = 25K EB2 + 10K EB3
and you are saying 50K EB2 = 25K EB2 * 2 for dependendants

doesn't this 50K consists of all world wide applications?
If so 25K EB2 shoukd be split as India + China+ROW = 10K + 3K + 12K.
Then only 12K * 2 = 24K will be consumed from FY 2013 by ROW applications. Because EB2-I and EB2-C will go to backlog queue.

If total EB2 is ~40K per year, then we still have 40K - 24K ~= 16K for EB2 I+C.
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  #6354  
Old 09-06-2012, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krishmunn View Post
From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012.
Please provide the link for reference.

In other website it says 49,700. Check the link http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/P...-July-2012.pdf.
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  #6355  
Old 09-06-2012, 06:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
Please provide the link for reference.

In other website it says 49,700. Check the link http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/P...-July-2012.pdf.
Ok I jumped the gun.

It is 49,700 applications received and 34,900 applications certified.
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  #6356  
Old 09-06-2012, 06:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krishmunn View Post
From Shusterman's update, they approved 35K PERM in FY 2012. It will be safe to assume a similar number this year. Multiplying by a factor of 2, it turns to around 70 K Visa numbers. If we assume around 50 K in EB2 (rarely someone goes for EB3 now ) that eats up more than EB2 allocation. With only EB1 left over coming to India/China, I do not think we will see a great movement this year. Probably just a few months, that too by end of Fiscal
The link (http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/P...-July-2012.pdf) also gives the below shown distribution, which would be helpful to guesstimate EB2 number.

Minimum Education Requirements
======================
Advanced Degree** -- 18,000 (51%)
Bachelorís Degree ----- 13,600 (39%)
Other ------------------- 2,000 (6%)
Less than Bachelorís -- 1,300 (4%)
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  #6357  
Old 09-07-2012, 09:09 AM
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Default Latest DOS prediction on EB2 cut off dates

I just saw this latest news flash on murthy
NewsFlash! DOS Issues Revised EB2 Cutoff Date Prediction ę Murthy Law Firm : U.S. Immigration Law

According to this the EB2 cut off date for October 2012 is predicted to go back to 2006.

This is really depressing for people like me who were hoping for positive news this October. I have PD of March 2008 and so that means now I have to wait much longer.
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  #6358  
Old 09-07-2012, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
If I understand your post correct:

35K PERM approved similar to FY 2012.
i.e. = 25K EB2 + 10K EB3
and you are saying 50K EB2 = 25K EB2 * 2 for dependendants

doesn't this 50K consists of all world wide applications?
If so 25K EB2 shoukd be split as India + China+ROW = 10K + 3K + 12K.
Then only 12K * 2 = 24K will be consumed from FY 2013 by ROW applications. Because EB2-I and EB2-C will go to backlog queue.

If total EB2 is ~40K per year, then we still have 40K - 24K ~= 16K for EB2 I+C.
You are right ! I missed the part that this include I + C as well. So the ROW number will be much less than 50 K . That shows some hope. But again, remember EB2 ROW is backlogged now. So they will be satisfied from 2012 quota
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  #6359  
Old 09-07-2012, 05:35 PM
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Default EB2 I+C predictions

This is my take based on some reasonable assumptions:

Total PERM for FY 2012 = 35 K

We know I+C is approx 60% so ROW = 14K

Assuming 70% is EB2 = 10 K

Now for I-140 = 0.9x10 = 9K

No of ROW 485 = 9 x 2.2 = approx 20K

Spill to EB2 I+C

Backlogged ROW 485 = 7K,

So Spill from EB2 = 34 - 27 = 7K
Assume Spill from EB1 = 5K
and from EB4+EB5 = 7K

Total Spill = 19K.

Total allocation to EB I+C = 19 + 6 = 25K

This will be reduced by EB3I+C and EB3 ROW porting which is unknown (may be 10K??)

Net Allocation = 15K.

This should move EB2 I+C dates to Mid 2008 by end FY 2013.
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  #6360  
Old 09-07-2012, 07:52 PM
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Default my take

From my past 5-6 years of exp on pd movement pattern , DOS moves date once a year , rapid movement. in 2007 it was in July , in 2008 it was in Aug.... last year it was in Oct - Jan. Still pre adjudicated volume is only 17k... If that number does not rise then date should be current in April - May bulletin. As Teddy said , only minimum allocation will be done in Oct so it may not look optimistic but in April everyone will get Surprise. If that 17k become 30k then chance are still there for forward movement till late 2008 or early 2009.
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