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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #16  
Old 10-07-2008, 01:08 PM
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I partially disagree with your analysis on markets in India. Icici and SBI are facing the problem of defaulters these days. Banks there have mimicked the model in United States and there are amny loans that had less than 10% downpayment.
I can tell you in Hyderabad that many flats in and around madhapur are upwards of 45 lakhs.
These prices will fall given the number of flats still unsold. There are amny unsold houses worth above 1 Cr and they are gonna come down.
--sri
Quote:
Originally Posted by BECsufferer View Post
You have to understand how the market in India operates versus how it is run in developed countries especially in USA. I don't know if you noticed, but all the property transactions are conducted on credit in USA with minimum persnal contribution ( i.e. down payement). And now in hindsight, we all can understand how this practise was reason for bubble-brust. As an interested home-owner looking for houses currently, I have first hand experience. I say that beacuse people out-bidding me, even in todays market conditions, are putting down zero amount in down payment and in-turn even financing closing costs. So when you have minimal of personal equity at stake, it bothers you least to take risks on other peoples ( say banks) money.

Now lets go to India, and I will stick to North-India, as that's where I have first hand expereience from. Go and talk to any property dealer and enquiry about properties. Wait for few weeks and return to find the rates have gone up. Well lets assume, you agreed upon the sale price and are now ready to conduct transaction. The property dealer is not going to ask you for SS number to check credit wortheness, but rather will ask for cash amount. You pay cash, you have the papers else don't waste time. So with business model, their is little risk involved and hence property business in North-India remains sizzling hot.

If you can afford you must buy piece of land in North India. ALthough maintaining it always remains challange as their are no laws protecting you from Rich-Police-Politician gangs.
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  #17  
Old 10-07-2008, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by srikondoji View Post
I partially disagree with your analysis on markets in India. Icici and SBI are facing the problem of defaulters these days. Banks there have mimicked the model in United States and there are amny loans that had less than 10% downpayment.
I can tell you in Hyderabad that many flats in and around madhapur are upwards of 45 lakhs.
These prices will fall given the number of flats still unsold. There are amny unsold houses worth above 1 Cr and they are gonna come down.
--sri
Sri;

As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.

My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
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  #18  
Old 10-07-2008, 02:09 PM
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Hi BECsufferer,
This time i completely disagree with you.
There has been asset bubble in Indian properties due to cheap money.

Read the following excerpt from March 2008.
"— The yen carry trade is a “cheap money” gambit that exploits the extraordinarily low borrowing rates available in Japan. It is notoriously hard to quantify but is understood to have supported a series of the asset bubbles around the world in the past few years, from Indian property to fine wine and art

— Japan's low interest rates, an anomaly in the financial world, result from Japanese central bank monetary policy, which has, Richard Jerram, the Macquarie economist, said, “defied orthodox economic thinking for more than 20 years”


Not just realtors, but banks, Tatats, birlas and to some extent Reliance will fall prey to the folly they made between 2005 and 2007.
They borrowed Billions of dollars for their oversees acquisitions which are yen denominated.
NO wonder why INdian markets are collapsing even though the Indian market is de-coupled.
Hope this explains why there won't be any property value appreciation for next few years in India as well as anywhere on this planet earth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BECsufferer View Post
Sri;

As i said in my note, my comments are strictly directed towards markets in North India such as Greater Mohali or Ludhiana. Their had been some instances of mega-builders pulling out of mega-commercial projects such as Mohali inter-State Bus Terminal. But on same note, recent auction of commercial land by GMADA saw prices not fore-seen by general public. As rarely does anyone in north India believes on financial or non-financial promisary notes, as we do here in USA. So for individual buyers, it all boils down to cash transaction.

My suggestion, as someone noted their is 25% appreciation of USD, is to invest in india preferbly in partnership with someone you know and can trust.
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  #19  
Old 10-07-2008, 02:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by funny View Post
Guys, I know this is immigration forum , so People who are not interested in this thread please ignore.
Considering the State of Markets and Global economy.
Please throw some ideas..
At this point, I think it makes more sense to become a blood sucking goolti employer.

updated-------->
To the punk you gave me red with the comment "What the fu*K did you mean by goolty? Did some gulti screwed your wife or mother??"
No, actually I was fucked by a GOOLTI not a GULTI like you. And if I find you I will make sure to buttfu*k your Dad & make you Mom suck my di*k later MotherFu*ker. If you Mom is dead, then maybe your GrandMom or Wife or Daughter. Oh, and also learn some grammar, it is "screw" not "screwed", guess they don't teach that in goolti schools huh? Arsehole Fuc**ng lonely inbred loser.

Add to the other who gave me red with "I dont see much difference b/w gulty, Marathi, Tamil, Gujju, Desi, Gora, Iraqui, Irani." I was referring to GOOLTI not GULTI. Visit www.goolti.com know the difference. Gulti's are hardworking Telugu folk, I have no problem with them. GOOLTI's are the blood sucking Employers. Thanks for understanding.
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Last edited by cygent; 10-31-2008 at 05:30 PM.
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  #20  
Old 10-07-2008, 03:41 PM
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There is vast difference between US and Indian housing market crash. India RE market will not collapse like here. There may be a melt down or small correction. The simple big reason is demand for housing in middle class due to economic growth. Based on population density, US is 9 times bigger than India. Lot of land in US. But housing land is so limited in India. So there is always demand. Second reason, there is no sub-prime lending in India. Third, in India, housing loan is based on cash worthiness rather than credit worthyness like in US. So we may not see such a massive foreclosure/bankrupcy in India to bring the price down considerably like in US.

However, now the prices or extremly high, such that it can not be affordabe to people other than NRI or IT folks. 1 crore houses are very common now. Based on US economy it will definitly come down. It will be depend on how hard IT/outsourcing bussiness gets affectd in future.
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  #21  
Old 10-07-2008, 03:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramba View Post
There is vast difference between US and Indian housing market crash. India RE market will not collapse like here. There may be a melt down or small correction. The simple big reason is demand for housing in middle class due to economic growth. Based on population density, US is 9 times bigger than India. Lot of land in US. But housing land is so limited in India. So there is always demand. Second reason, there is no sub-prime lending in India. Third, in India, housing loan is based on cash worthiness rather than credit worthyness like in US. So we may not see such a massive foreclosure/bankrupcy in India to bring the price down considerably like in US.

However, now the prices or extremly high, such that it can not be affordabe to people other than NRI or IT folks. 1 crore houses are very common now. Based on US economy it will definitly come down. It will be depend on how hard IT/outsourcing bussiness gets affectd in future.

True, but you are forgetting the basic definition of demand. Demand is willingness to buy supported by ability to buy. If you are from any metros in India, think how many of your Non-IT, mainstream friends draw more than Rs. 50,000 per month? How can someone making even Rs. 50,000 a month afford 50 Lakh flat?

If there are 10 people drooling out side Ferrari showroom that does not mean there is demand for 10 Ferrari

Cheers

ArkBird
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  #22  
Old 10-07-2008, 04:13 PM
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Ramba,
Yes there is demand, but that demand initially came from NRI's. This is when properties were worth under 20 lakhs. But soon the prices jumped to levels even unaffordable to NRIs. Now these prices are unsustainable because even a person earning 1 lakh per month cannot afford a 50 Lakh worth propery. This is because of high interest rates on home loans.
I know few real estate houses where they are almost close to bankruptcy because they couldn't sell the houses or land. They borrowed huge amount of high interest short term loans and now can't sell the properties.
Sure, there is demand but economics will take the front seat at the time of materialization of this demand.

Your theory sounds exactly that of my father. When i challenged him in year 2005 that property values in Hyderabad will have to fall as the rise in prices is riduculous, he laughed at me. He said "I have not seen in my entire life a price drop in property prices". When i said, i will not invest in real estate until the prices fall, he just made fun of me.
I was at the receiving end for the past 2 years both in US and also in India for the decision not to invest in real estate here and also in India.
Luckily the piece of land i bought in India in the year 2004 still holds its value.

--sri


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramba View Post
There is vast difference between US and Indian housing market crash. India RE market will not collapse like here. There may be a melt down or small correction. The simple big reason is demand for housing in middle class due to economic growth. Based on population density, US is 9 times bigger than India. Lot of land in US. But housing land is so limited in India. So there is always demand. Second reason, there is no sub-prime lending in India. Third, in India, housing loan is based on cash worthiness rather than credit worthyness like in US. So we may not see such a massive foreclosure/bankrupcy in India to bring the price down considerably like in US.

However, now the prices or extremly high, such that it can not be affordabe to people other than NRI or IT folks. 1 crore houses are very common now. Based on US economy it will definitly come down. It will be depend on how hard IT/outsourcing bussiness gets affectd in future.
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  #23  
Old 10-07-2008, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkBird View Post
True, but you are forgetting the basic definition of demand. Demand is willingness to buy supported by ability to buy. If you are from any metros in India, think how many of your Non-IT, mainstream friends draw more than Rs. 50,000 per month? How can someone making even Rs. 50,000 a month afford 50 Lakh flat?

If there are 10 people drooling out side Ferrari showroom that does not mean there is demand for 10 Ferrari

Cheers

ArkBird
I understand. Even for NRI it is difficut to afford now. The issue is the numbers. How many H1b and L1s come to US from 1990 t0 2008. Very very conservative estimation wil be atleast 2 million. This estimation ignores other NRIs in other country. Apart from this there are many resident IT folks makes 6 digit salary plays the role. If most of them tries to buy, we need to find another India. Indian real estates become a NRI colony,
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  #24  
Old 10-07-2008, 06:34 PM
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Default Hyderdapad realestate would not burst unless US Govt. files bankruptcy

Almost all Hyderabad house hold has one or more members live in US, who save atleast 15l/year and invest a lot in homeloand which would translate into sustainable stability in AP,India.

Unless US govt. declares bankruptcy, AP real estate would not burst so it would be safe to invest in AP.....
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  #25  
Old 10-07-2008, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by 21stIcon View Post
Almost all Hyderabad house hold has one or more members live in US, who save atleast 15l/year and invest a lot in homeloand which would translate into sustainable stability in AP,India.

Unless US govt. declares bankruptcy, AP real estate would not burst so it would be safe to invest in AP.....
If an aparment costs 70 lakhs and that is renting for 15 thousand, how does it make sense to invest in it? The return on 70 lakhs at 12%(or 10%) is 7 lakhs/year. That is approx. 60 thousand per month. If you buy an apartment and rent it, it gives you 15 thousand. Don't you see the problem? The return on investment is low, very low. The fact that it is renting only for 15 thousand tells us that it is not affordable for most of the average guys in the city. The theory that there are more demand to snap up 70 lakh, 1 crore apartments is simply not true.
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  #26  
Old 10-07-2008, 07:27 PM
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The only housing market which doesn't show any sign of correction is Mumbai, as the builders have more Dubai, 'Bhai' kind of money. Everywhere else properties have already fallen 20-30%. In gurgaon & NOIDA they are down 40% from previous year...
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  #27  
Old 10-07-2008, 08:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mirage View Post
The only housing market which doesn't show any sign of correction is Mumbai, as the builders have more Dubai, 'Bhai' kind of money. Everywhere else properties have already fallen 20-30%. In gurgaon & NOIDA they are down 40% from previous year...
Even in Mumbai, prices are coming down (~10-20% from last year) however they are so high right now it has to crash more than 50% to come in "NRI" range. I feel sorry for the common middle class of Mumbai... They have no options but to go beyond Borivali and Thane even after crash ....
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  #28  
Old 10-07-2008, 08:24 PM
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Global economy downfall impact will be there in india also,Indian Stock market is also going down, Due to Inflation, High interest ,Election year (India). It is better to wait till next year.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkBird View Post
Even in Mumbai, prices are coming down (~10-20% from last year) however they are so high right now it has to crash more than 50% to come in "NRI" range. I feel sorry for the common middle class of Mumbai... They have no options but to go beyond Borivali and Thane even after crash ....
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  #29  
Old 10-07-2008, 08:43 PM
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Did you guys paid attention to this, when Inflation rose to 13% Indian Finance Minister said it is because Oil is at $160 a barrel, but now as Oil has come down, Inflation has come down worldwide Inflation is still above 12% in India. also, when Stock markets were at 22K Indian FM minister used to give Interviews every day it is because of great policies of UPA govt. Now Sensex has slashed 40%, Finance Mn. has suddenly dissapeared. Did you guys also heard him saying 'Indian economy is insulated from ongoing US crisis'. I doubt if there is a bigger liar in Indian govt. than the finance minister he's beaten Laloo, amar singh types...
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  #30  
Old 10-07-2008, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 21stIcon View Post
Almost all Hyderabad house hold has one or more members live in US, who save atleast 15l/year and invest a lot in homeloand which would translate into sustainable stability in AP,India.

Unless US govt. declares bankruptcy, AP real estate would not burst so it would be safe to invest in AP.....
I feel you guys are barking the wrong tree altogether. I agree that there will be a slow down in the real estate market. No question about it. But not the segment you guys are arguing abt. Only 10% of the NRIs can afford a house worth more than 50 Lakhs. I am being conservative here. So the upscale realestate market is not fueled by NRI money. Its the black money in india.

There is a lot of black money in India. Real estate bubble in india is definitely because of that money. It will not correct as much as US for sure!
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