Immigration Voice - Forums - Legacy
Register Get Involved Contact Lawmakers Advocacy Discussion Image Image Image Image

Go Back   Immigration Voice > Analysis Discussion > Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins
Click to log in with Facebook
Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:06 AM
eb3_nepa eb3_nepa is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,442
eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute
Default Visa Bulletin Forward Progress

Hello everyone,

I know this topic is taboo and probably raised eleswhere, but I couldn't help wonder one thing.

The BECs have shut down and no more LCs are pending. Also labour substitution is not allowed anymore. So does that not mean that from this point onwards we should NEVER see the priority dates retrogress any further? I mean isint that logical or am I missing something major? Until now, the pending LCs in the BECs were hanging like a sword over our heads, but now that problem is gone (i know a lot of people have suffered over the years for the same and I respect that).

I guess my question is: Is there ANY possible reason for the PDs for any country to further retrogress?
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #2  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:11 AM
fromnaija fromnaija is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Sep-06
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/30/2006
Chargeability
:
Nigeria
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/30/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 703
fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute fromnaija has a reputation beyond repute
Default

The reasons for retrogression are limit on the number of visas available (140,000) per year, country cap and the number of applications with USCIS for adjustment of status and with DOS for CP. Nobody knows how many applications are outstanding and so we cannot estimate PD movement accurately.
__________________
----------------------
"All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian."
- Pat Paulsen
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #3  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:16 AM
WillIWin? WillIWin? is offline
Member
Priority Date
:
May-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/01/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/01/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 41
WillIWin? has a spectacular aura about WillIWin? has a spectacular aura about WillIWin? has a spectacular aura about
Default Nearly correct...

Quote:
Originally Posted by eb3_nepa View Post
Hello everyone,

I know this topic is taboo and probably raised eleswhere, but I couldn't help wonder one thing.

The BECs have shut down and no more LCs are pending. Also labour substitution is not allowed anymore. So does that not mean that from this point onwards we should NEVER see the priority dates retrogress any further? I mean isint that logical or am I missing something major? Until now, the pending LCs in the BECs were hanging like a sword over our heads, but now that problem is gone (i know a lot of people have suffered over the years for the same and I respect that).

I guess my question is: Is there ANY possible reason for the PDs for any country to further retrogress?
Your reasoning is nearly correct. But you are missing Two points:
1. There will be some cases from BECs which could not file AOSs in time since their labors did not clear for them in the july/aug timeframe. Only when these have cleared will the chances of further retrogression decrease.
2. ALSO - Just as an example, If there are 100000 Eb2s with PDs of 2005. We know that there are NOT 10000 visa #s available for EB2s, in that case too, the dates will retrogress - since thats the only way they can prevent visa #s being used.

Am I making much sense ?
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:26 AM
kaisersose kaisersose is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
07/26/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140+I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/26/2007
Compare
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 714
kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of kaisersose has much to be proud of
Default

This is how it works.

DOS will decide on a certain number ovisa to be released during a quarter. They will draw an estimate and set the cut-off to a certain date so that USCIS can request visa numbers.

As an example, let us say they decide to release 500 visa numbers for India EB2 the following month and set the cut off for that category to April 2004. USCIS will have a demand for thousands of visa numbers for EB2 India with PDs earlier than that date. DOS will release the 500 numbers and then they will push the date back to April 2002 or something to cut down supply till the next quarter. If there is demand for visa numbers even below this cut off date, they will reduce it further or change it to U.

We could have predicted the movement better if USCIS and DOS were one. But since they are not, it is almost impossible. Like how DOS shocked USCIS last year by unexpectedly setting all PDs to current. The other complication is since many EB3 are now changing over to EB2 with earlier PDs, forget DOS, even USCIS does not know how many EB2s it will have to process.

In short, continue to expect the same pattern of erratic movement.

Last edited by kaisersose; 02-18-2008 at 11:28 AM.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #5  
Old 02-18-2008, 11:32 AM
bala50 bala50 is offline
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
05/06/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/29/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 72
bala50 will become famous soon enough
Default Recapture is our only hope.

And it may well depend upon the demand for H1b visas this year. If there is a huge demand for H1b visas like last year, there is a good chance congress may recapture lost H1b visas. Then EB visas may also be recaptured along with H1b visas.

But I'm not sure about the demand for H1B this year , as H4 to H1 conversion will be down this year due to (most of) H4 visa holders getting EAD. Another issue is if OPT is increased to 24 months, then F1 to H1 will also fall drastically.
Fear of recession may also reduce new H1B visa demand.
__________________
PROUD IV PA MEMBER
JOIN IV PA http://groups.google.com/group/iv-pa
Contribution $300 and counting...
Sent letters to President for Admin Fix Campaign
Please Support Visa Recapture Campaign

Last edited by bala50; 02-18-2008 at 11:35 AM.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #6  
Old 02-18-2008, 12:05 PM
Lasantha Lasantha is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/24/1900
Chargeability
:
Afghanistan
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
03/24/1900
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 580
Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice
Default

Totally off the topic and beg your pardon. But do you know when they post the new USCIS processing dates. They still have the January posting.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #7  
Old 02-18-2008, 12:17 PM
eb3_nepa eb3_nepa is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jun-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,442
eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute eb3_nepa has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WillIWin? View Post
Your reasoning is nearly correct. But you are missing Two points:
1. There will be some cases from BECs which could not file AOSs in time since their labors did not clear for them in the july/aug timeframe. Only when these have cleared will the chances of further retrogression decrease.
2. ALSO - Just as an example, If there are 100000 Eb2s with PDs of 2005. We know that there are NOT 10000 visa #s available for EB2s, in that case too, the dates will retrogress - since thats the only way they can prevent visa #s being used.

Am I making much sense ?
My point here is:

Now there is NO reason for the DOS to miscalculate or not know how many applications are out there for AOS.

Someone mentioned that some BEC ppl were not able to apply for AOS coz their applications did not get released in time, that is a valid point. So maybe we should see one last backward movement if any and then it should be strictly forward movement. VERY SLOW movement i agree but forward movement.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #8  
Old 02-18-2008, 12:32 PM
NKR NKR is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-04
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/05/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/05/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 577
NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute NKR has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bala50 View Post
And it may well depend upon the demand for H1b visas this year. If there is a huge demand for H1b visas like last year, there is a good chance congress may recapture lost H1b visas. Then EB visas may also be recaptured along with H1b visas.

But I'm not sure about the demand for H1B this year , as H4 to H1 conversion will be down this year due to (most of) H4 visa holders getting EAD. Another issue is if OPT is increased to 24 months, then F1 to H1 will also fall drastically.
Fear of recession may also reduce new H1B visa demand.
Haven't heard of recapturing H1 visas. With high demand for H1s I doubt if there will be any unused visas to be recaptured. Even if there are any then can the congress recapture them? Even if they did why would they recapture unused EB visas along with unused H1 visas? . Am I missing something here?..
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #9  
Old 02-18-2008, 01:07 PM
Lasantha Lasantha is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/24/1900
Chargeability
:
Afghanistan
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
03/24/1900
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 580
Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice Lasantha is just really nice
Default

I don't think you are missing anything. I don't think the congress will pass a bill to recapture EB visas out of the blue like that. It will take lots of effort from the pro-immigrant community and will face a great deal of opposition like it did in the past from the anti lobby. It won't be handed to us in a plate just like that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NKR View Post
Haven't heard of recapturing H1 visas. With high demand for H1s I doubt if there will be any unused visas to be recaptured. Even if there are any then can the congress recapture them? Even if they did why would they recapture unused EB visas along with unused H1 visas? . Am I missing something here?..
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Article: September Visa Bulletin: Great Leap Forward for Some by Carl Shusterman Blog Feeds Recent Blogs 0 08-24-2010 07:50 AM
September Visa Bulletin: Great Leap Forward for Some Blog Feeds Recent Blogs 0 08-19-2010 03:21 AM
Article: September 2010 Visa Bulletin - The Great Leap Forward? by Carl Shusterman Blog Feeds Recent Blogs 0 07-27-2010 06:50 AM



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:43 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.3.0 (Unregistered)
(c)ImmigrationVoice.org