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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #61  
Old 10-10-2008, 09:38 PM
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21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold
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Originally Posted by srikondoji View Post
Long term USA bonds are toast --->
Look at 1930/1960/1990 history you would understand why it make sense buy US bonds during stressed time because yield will go down and price will shoot up

Quote:
Originally Posted by srikondoji View Post
Why should China/Taiwan/Arab get out of Gold? There are no strong indicators for doing that for now.
Eventually they will get out when they find there is no purchasing power on other side of globe. learn How gold crashed from $840 -$170 between 1981- 1990 and why gold price was stable between 1991-2001.

Gold price would not shoot up when most of the developed countries banks are in trouble like 1989-1992

I would not suggest more than 5% of your net worth in gold, but you should know your appetite

China has to lend more of its reserve to western economies otherwise its own export will be in peril, so they would not invest in gold...

Learn relationship between crude and gold, crude would go back to$50/barrel , so Arab govts would have not money to buy gold...


Quote:
Originally Posted by srikondoji View Post
I cannot stop but laugh at your insistence that USA is global economic engine. More than half of the population is in deep debt and their population is ageing fast. Students can't borrow money now on easy terms to dund their education. THere is virtually no appetite for more debt to fire the economic engine at all.

Physical gold and silver is best to possess.
Russians were stronger in 1970's and US crushed them to no where ,800 banks failed in 1990 and Japanese were stronger than today's Chinese economy but US smashed in 5 years


If you understand how US crushed you would not laugh you would be happy that you are in best part of earth

Moreover I am not saying I am right on everything , I am just writing what I feel , time has to judge our predictions.

Do you know why economists are not best paid executives than scientist?

You would understand laughing and bet would not make sense on capital markets.

Last edited by 21stIcon; 10-10-2008 at 10:02 PM.
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  #62  
Old 10-10-2008, 11:48 PM
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srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light
Cool

The only difference between the historic data (1930/1960/1990) and 2008 is that, we are in globalized economy now. The crash you are seeing now is much much different than what anybody has seen before.

Crude prices are crashing because the demand growth projections Goldman sachs had was based on availability of which is not the case now. So, demand for crude is lower and hence oil prices are crashing. Look at GM and ford. They are going down too, because auto sales are doomed for next 2 years.

The problem why Gold will go up is multifold.
China, OPEC countries have huge dollar reserves and hence would like to diversify their dollars. The run up in Gold is just because China and few Oil exporting countries were buying Gold. Gold still has more room to rise. I am talking about physical gold and not the paper gold (GLD ticker symbol).

United States has to print dollars to meet the present crisis. At the same time, it has support those currency papers with Gold. Without Gold backing, dollar value will be crushed.
I am goldsmith and i do know the history of Gold going back to decades. I also read several books to top it all.
See the value of Gold after making inflation adjustments. Don't just look at the per ounce value in dollar terms.

Unless you look at money supply (m3), you will not be able to get a grip on Gold value.
Google on term 'brenton woods' and do some reading.

The only way Gold can be crushed is if
a) United States sells all its Gold holdings.
b) If some gold miner miraculously says that they found a mine with billions of ounces of gold and which can profitably extracted.

There is one theory floating around. United States may sell some of its gold reserves to make up for $700 Billions. However, there are buyers out there who would love to take that Gold. China's biggest headache right now is, what to do with their Dollars.

United States long term bonds are going to yield nothing and will be worthless.

We can go on this forever and fill these pages.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 21stIcon View Post
Look at 1930/1960/1990 history you would understand why it make sense buy US bonds during stressed time because yield will go down and price will shoot up



Eventually they will get out when they find there is no purchasing power on other side of globe. learn How gold crashed from $840 -$170 between 1981- 1990 and why gold price was stable between 1991-2001.

Gold price would not shoot up when most of the developed countries banks are in trouble like 1989-1992

I would not suggest more than 5% of your net worth in gold, but you should know your appetite

China has to lend more of its reserve to western economies otherwise its own export will be in peril, so they would not invest in gold...

Learn relationship between crude and gold, crude would go back to$50/barrel , so Arab govts would have not money to buy gold...




Russians were stronger in 1970's and US crushed them to no where ,800 banks failed in 1990 and Japanese were stronger than today's Chinese economy but US smashed in 5 years


If you understand how US crushed you would not laugh you would be happy that you are in best part of earth

Moreover I am not saying I am right on everything , I am just writing what I feel , time has to judge our predictions.

Do you know why economists are not best paid executives than scientist?

You would understand laughing and bet would not make sense on capital markets.

Last edited by srikondoji; 10-10-2008 at 11:59 PM.
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  #63  
Old 10-11-2008, 12:38 AM
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21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold 21stIcon is a splendid one to behold
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As I said I am not economy guru, we can read history after 5 years. My point is gold was not inflation proof , last 50 years return was less than other investment types and high volatile.

If you are considering gold for investment how would physical gold differ from ETF?


For me it is easy to sell ETF from my desk since I would get same value as physical gold.
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  #64  
Old 10-12-2008, 12:03 AM
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Originally Posted by TravInd View Post
Nice link. When I looked at list of banks I realised that the 10% is about domestic deposits. How am I eligible for this? How can deposit and get the money back over time?
You open a resident account in a bank and file an Indian tax return for the earnings. If you need money outside India, you can remit $200,000 per person every year (i.e. $400,000 for a couple), which is a large enough limit for most circumstances.

http://www.rbi.org.in/SCRIPTs/BS_Pre...spx?prid=17068
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  #65  
Old 10-12-2008, 01:40 AM
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sanju is a splendid one to behold sanju is a splendid one to behold sanju is a splendid one to behold sanju is a splendid one to behold sanju is a splendid one to behold sanju is a splendid one to behold
Default Just sit tight

I don't know much about buying house/property in India. Maybe you want to have a close family member keep an eye on your property otherwise a land graber/local gunda in the area may take possession of your property while you are here/away.

But I find some of the discussion in this thread extremely intriguing. There were specific conditions in 1930s, 1960s, 1990s that caused recovery in those times. Leadership & American generation were ready to sacrifice and do hard work. Contrary to the hard work done during those times, large percentage of the current population is indifferent and does not care to know about the current crisis, not knowing the gravity of the situation. Majority of the population was, still is, opposed to $700 billion bailout/rescue not knowing what is going on. The ups and downs in the stock market is just the beginning. Coming year is going to be very tough, specially on folks are in the situation that require them to visit this forum every now and then.

Every great and prosperous nation is just one generation away from losing its greatness. History teaches us that Great nations lost their greatness/cease to exist because the larger populations ignored the times of crisis. Most people say that America has always come out of crisis in the past and just like those times, America will again come out of the current crisis. That's what everybody expect and wants to see happen, as if there will be a miracle and everything will get fixed. Everybody including media/leadership are taking things for granted, as if things will turn around by itself just because things have turned around in the past. But this apathy is very dangerous. Here is why - we can say with fair bit of certainty that Romans must have also said during their time of crisis that things will be fine, they have always gotten fine because we are the Romans, the empire of Gods, or whatever. Likewise, this time around, media/leaders are guided by similar rhetoric. I find this behavior very dangerous. In 1930s/60s/90s there was able leadership and American generations during those times were ready to do their share. It doesn't appear such this time, atleast not right now. Maybe we have sometime to come out of the crisis and things will change in the near future. But without change in the direction, things don't look very good right now.

Rome was not built in one day and it did not perish in one day. If leadership and population continue to ignore the gravity of the crisis, there is only one possible outcome.

The positive aspect this time around is, due to globalization, other nations have stake in American economy and are willing to come to the rescue. Even nations like China and Russia are willing to step-up. This would have been unthinkable in an un-globalized world. But other nations can only do so much. Ultimately, the larger population in America will have to step up, and that includes us, there is no other way. Now G-7 is working together to come up with a comprehensive plan. A lot of people beat down on globalization, but till now it is working as was designed, which is good, and other friendlier/unfriendlier nations are willing to step-up.

Another foreseeable opportunity to fight the current situation is, world energy crisis. America can use the world energy crisis to turn things around, not necessarily subscribing to ideas from businessmen like T Bone Pickens/natural gas to promote their business and blah bhah blah, but something else, which makes America - a leader to solve the energy requirements of over 6 billion people, when estimated 20% of the world population consumes 95% of the world energy.

I don't know if you should buy property in India or if you should buy gold. But in the grand scheme of things, if I were you, I would hang on to the "cash" very close to my chest. Things are really bad, a lot more than what meets the eye or what is apparent.




.
__________________
"The whole history of these books is so defective and doubtful that it seems vain to attempt minute enquiry into it: and such tricks have been played with their text, and with the texts of other books relating to them, that we have a right, from that cause, to entertain much doubt what parts of them are genuine. In the New Testament there is internal evidence that parts of it have proceeded from an extraordinary man; and that other parts are of the fabric of very inferior minds. It is as easy to separate those parts, as to pick out diamonds from dunghills."

- One Great man to another, 1814

Last edited by sanju; 10-12-2008 at 01:56 AM.
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  #66  
Old 10-13-2008, 03:41 PM
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srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light srikondoji is a glorious beacon of light
Red face

Nicely said.
Don't know if it was Roman or greek, but they kept on diluting their currency (gold coins) with copper to support their spending and populist schemes. They kept on diluting to the extent that even India stopped exporting spices becuase their coins were not worth as much as they use to once upon a time.
This is what is happening to dollar.

America is loosing their grips pn global financial system. Even though it will be remembered as the founder of free maket, it has rushed too fast and forced other countries to open up their financial system. HOwever, three essential ingedients of free market theory have not been handled well.
Price discovey, Capital allocation and Flow of liquidity.

We are at a point, where all countries can reject free market as a failed attempt or pick it up from here and strengthen it going foward. Regulation is a must or else we will hit the bump again in future.

Without a proper trading system and regulator price discovey is vey hard and bubbles keep occuring.
This is vey true in case of real estate poperties. There are many localities in Hyderabad where propeties have not been priced appropriately.
In a matter of 1 year, property prices in some localities have gone up multi fold just because of 1 or 2 transactions by desparate buyers.

There is no price differential between 100 sq yards propety or 1000 sq yards property on a per sq yard price basis.
ROE is far greater on investments made on proportionate basis on 1000 sq yard plot compared to 100 sq yard plot. Without regards fo town planning, return on investments every piece of land was priced with the same yard stick.

I think it is best to follow the quotes below
"When eveybody is buying, something is definitely wrong."
"When everybody is selling, again something is wrong".

Quote:
Originally Posted by sanju View Post
I don't know much about buying house/property in India. Maybe you want to have a close family member keep an eye on your property otherwise a land graber/local gunda in the area may take possession of your property while you are here/away.

But I find some of the discussion in this thread extremely intriguing. There were specific conditions in 1930s, 1960s, 1990s that caused recovery in those times. Leadership & American generation were ready to sacrifice and do hard work. Contrary to the hard work done during those times, large percentage of the current population is indifferent and does not care to know about the current crisis, not knowing the gravity of the situation. Majority of the population was, still is, opposed to $700 billion bailout/rescue not knowing what is going on. The ups and downs in the stock market is just the beginning. Coming year is going to be very tough, specially on folks are in the situation that require them to visit this forum every now and then.

Every great and prosperous nation is just one generation away from losing its greatness. History teaches us that Great nations lost their greatness/cease to exist because the larger populations ignored the times of crisis. Most people say that America has always come out of crisis in the past and just like those times, America will again come out of the current crisis. That's what everybody expect and wants to see happen, as if there will be a miracle and everything will get fixed. Everybody including media/leadership are taking things for granted, as if things will turn around by itself just because things have turned around in the past. But this apathy is very dangerous. Here is why - we can say with fair bit of certainty that Romans must have also said during their time of crisis that things will be fine, they have always gotten fine because we are the Romans, the empire of Gods, or whatever. Likewise, this time around, media/leaders are guided by similar rhetoric. I find this behavior very dangerous. In 1930s/60s/90s there was able leadership and American generations during those times were ready to do their share. It doesn't appear such this time, atleast not right now. Maybe we have sometime to come out of the crisis and things will change in the near future. But without change in the direction, things don't look very good right now.

Rome was not built in one day and it did not perish in one day. If leadership and population continue to ignore the gravity of the crisis, there is only one possible outcome.

The positive aspect this time around is, due to globalization, other nations have stake in American economy and are willing to come to the rescue. Even nations like China and Russia are willing to step-up. This would have been unthinkable in an un-globalized world. But other nations can only do so much. Ultimately, the larger population in America will have to step up, and that includes us, there is no other way. Now G-7 is working together to come up with a comprehensive plan. A lot of people beat down on globalization, but till now it is working as was designed, which is good, and other friendlier/unfriendlier nations are willing to step-up.

Another foreseeable opportunity to fight the current situation is, world energy crisis. America can use the world energy crisis to turn things around, not necessarily subscribing to ideas from businessmen like T Bone Pickens/natural gas to promote their business and blah bhah blah, but something else, which makes America - a leader to solve the energy requirements of over 6 billion people, when estimated 20% of the world population consumes 95% of the world energy.

I don't know if you should buy property in India or if you should buy gold. But in the grand scheme of things, if I were you, I would hang on to the "cash" very close to my chest. Things are really bad, a lot more than what meets the eye or what is apparent.




.

Last edited by srikondoji; 10-13-2008 at 03:55 PM.
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