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  #1  
Old 06-04-2009, 07:05 PM
acecupid acecupid is offline
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Post Trade War With India : Interesting blog

http://www.informationweek.com/blog/..._war_with.html

Trade War With India Looms Over Protectionist IT Legislation
Posted by Bob Evans on Jun 3, 2009 09:17 PM

A Senate bill aimed at limiting some H-1B visas will hurt the competitiveness of American companies, jeopardize ongoing projects, trigger a trade dispute with India, and prove to be "misguided and dangerous," say Indian IT execs. Anyone else foresee a Pyrrhic victory from all this protectionist grandstanding?



At the heart of the controversy surrounding the Durbin-Grassley legislation is a provision that would prevent U.S. companies with more than 50 U.S. employees from receiving additional visas if more than half of their U.S. workforce is made up of holders of H-1B or the similar L-1 visas, according to BusinessWeek.

Executives from the big Indian outsourcing companies say that limitation threatens their core business model – which I doubt the legislators even understand, let alone care about – and will in turn threaten the ability of their U.S.-based clients to remain globally competitive, a dynamic that I also doubt the legislators understand but that they should sure as heck care about.

Som Mittal, president of the high-profile NASSCOM trade group representing India's vast software and services industry, says the 50/50 provision is "misguided and dangerous," according to BusinessWeek, and predicts that "both U.S. and Indian industry would suffer."

Wipro executive chairman Azim Premji says the legislation would be so harmful to India's IT sector that the Indian government would have no alternative but to strike back at the U.S. with costly and counterproductive trade sanctions of its own: "There is no way our government can take it lightly," says Premji. "It's a vital piece of the economy."

And in what should be the scariest comment of all from Indian executives – and I say "scariest" because of its accuracy – Tata Consultancy chief operating officer Natarajan Chandrashekaran said, "It certainly does surprise us that the U.S., being so capitalist, is now going in the opposite direction. We certainly have to be watchful."

Maybe the retaliatory trade sanctions being contemplated within the Indian government will undercut the recent deal in which Indian airlines agreed to purchase 100 aircraft from Boeing valued at $17 billion over the next several years. Why in the world would India NOT strike back in such a fashion should the U.S. enact legislation that would threaten an industry that makes up 25% of India's overall economy, and has been the primary factor in that company's rapid economic development that has raised standards of living for many tens of millions of Indians?

Stick with me on this Boeing deal for a bit more – I realize it's over the heads of our senators from both parties, but businesspeople need to understand this. The recently signed $17B deal with India is a part of a much larger agreement between Boeing and its excellent and rapidly growing customers in India that calls for those airlines to purchase 1,000 aircraft from Boeing across 20 years at a value to Boeing of $105 billion.

If the current administration initiates a trade war with India, how badly will the backlash be for Boeing and other major American corporations that do huge volumes of business with India? How many jobs will be lost because of such short-sighted, ill-conceived legislation? Which government official will then do something other than flapping his gums when those Indian airlines take some or all of their $105 billion over 20 years and give it to Airbus?

We live in a global economy and talent will be found and utilized where it is most productive to the companies that are paying for it. And if the U.S. Congress could lift its head out of…the sand for just long enough to try to understand that, perhaps it would stop this dangerous legislation before it has the chance to destroy far more jobs than even its most starry-eyed supporters believe it could ever "protect."
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  #2  
Old 06-04-2009, 07:57 PM
Better_Days Better_Days is offline
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Default About bloody time

I have always believed that anyone that ignores or steps on the toes of India and China does so at their own peril.

A lot of the article is speculation but if it is true, about bloody time. It is a two way street. I once attended a seminar where the speaker remarked that by 2055, there will be only one major civilian aircraft manufacturer left in the world and both Airbus and Boeing were aware of it. Considering the size of the Indian market, no way Boeing can beat Airbus in the jetliner business if they get shut out.
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  #3  
Old 06-04-2009, 08:19 PM
simple1 simple1 is offline
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Default are you sure it is a trade war ?

While I agree with Azim that "There is no way our government can take it lightly," says Premji. "It's a vital piece of the economy."

Sure US actions are Protectionist. It is no way a trade war.

His comment "Indian government would have no alternative but to strike back at the U.S. with costly and counterproductive trade sanctions of its own" is laughable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by acecupid View Post
http://www.informationweek.com/blog/..._war_with.html

Trade War With India Looms Over Protectionist IT Legislation
Posted by Bob Evans on Jun 3, 2009 09:17 PM

A Senate bill aimed at limiting some H-1B visas will hurt the competitiveness of American companies, jeopardize ongoing projects, trigger a trade dispute with India, and prove to be "misguided and dangerous," say Indian IT execs. Anyone else foresee a Pyrrhic victory from all this protectionist grandstanding?



At the heart of the controversy surrounding the Durbin-Grassley legislation is a provision that would prevent U.S. companies with more than 50 U.S. employees from receiving additional visas if more than half of their U.S. workforce is made up of holders of H-1B or the similar L-1 visas, according to BusinessWeek.

Executives from the big Indian outsourcing companies say that limitation threatens their core business model – which I doubt the legislators even understand, let alone care about – and will in turn threaten the ability of their U.S.-based clients to remain globally competitive, a dynamic that I also doubt the legislators understand but that they should sure as heck care about.

Som Mittal, president of the high-profile NASSCOM trade group representing India's vast software and services industry, says the 50/50 provision is "misguided and dangerous," according to BusinessWeek, and predicts that "both U.S. and Indian industry would suffer."

Wipro executive chairman Azim Premji says the legislation would be so harmful to India's IT sector that the Indian government would have no alternative but to strike back at the U.S. with costly and counterproductive trade sanctions of its own: "There is no way our government can take it lightly," says Premji. "It's a vital piece of the economy."

And in what should be the scariest comment of all from Indian executives – and I say "scariest" because of its accuracy – Tata Consultancy chief operating officer Natarajan Chandrashekaran said, "It certainly does surprise us that the U.S., being so capitalist, is now going in the opposite direction. We certainly have to be watchful."

Maybe the retaliatory trade sanctions being contemplated within the Indian government will undercut the recent deal in which Indian airlines agreed to purchase 100 aircraft from Boeing valued at $17 billion over the next several years. Why in the world would India NOT strike back in such a fashion should the U.S. enact legislation that would threaten an industry that makes up 25% of India's overall economy, and has been the primary factor in that company's rapid economic development that has raised standards of living for many tens of millions of Indians?

Stick with me on this Boeing deal for a bit more – I realize it's over the heads of our senators from both parties, but businesspeople need to understand this. The recently signed $17B deal with India is a part of a much larger agreement between Boeing and its excellent and rapidly growing customers in India that calls for those airlines to purchase 1,000 aircraft from Boeing across 20 years at a value to Boeing of $105 billion.

If the current administration initiates a trade war with India, how badly will the backlash be for Boeing and other major American corporations that do huge volumes of business with India? How many jobs will be lost because of such short-sighted, ill-conceived legislation? Which government official will then do something other than flapping his gums when those Indian airlines take some or all of their $105 billion over 20 years and give it to Airbus?

We live in a global economy and talent will be found and utilized where it is most productive to the companies that are paying for it. And if the U.S. Congress could lift its head out of…the sand for just long enough to try to understand that, perhaps it would stop this dangerous legislation before it has the chance to destroy far more jobs than even its most starry-eyed supporters believe it could ever "protect."
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  #4  
Old 06-04-2009, 08:34 PM
acecupid acecupid is offline
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Default

My personal opinion is that the bill will never pass in its current form. There will be lot of pressure from corporates to remove the 50-50 rule.
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Old 06-04-2009, 08:48 PM
looneytunezez looneytunezez is offline
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I have always thought that this "bill" was more grandstanding and vote mongering than anything else.....appeal to the bases.....

now i understand loosing jobs is a scary prospect for anyone, but why would any US company (or for that matter, ANY company) ignore a country with 1/6 of the world consumer base.....makes no sense in any way....

Also, why cannot a company in US register outside US for that matter? Avoid the "loopy" taxation laws on foreign capital earned anywhere as it exists today in uS and is being proposed.....

so in the end, they gain 1B consumers while good tax laws if they dont go for this silly "protectionist" vote-mongering going on in the current congress.

that said, i guess i will now keep quiet.
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  #6  
Old 06-04-2009, 08:55 PM
gc28262 gc28262 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by looneytunezez View Post
I have always thought that this "bill" was more grandstanding and vote mongering than anything else.....appeal to the bases.....

now i understand loosing jobs is a scary prospect for anyone, but why would any US company (or for that matter, ANY company) ignore a country with 1/6 of the world consumer base.....makes no sense in any way....

Also, why cannot a company in US register outside US for that matter? Avoid the "loopy" taxation laws on foreign capital earned anywhere as it exists today in uS and is being proposed.....

so in the end, they gain 1B consumers while good tax laws if they dont go for this silly "protectionist" vote-mongering going on in the current congress.

that said, i guess i will now keep quiet.
That is the immaturity that comes with inexperience for Mr Change.
Mr Change was smart enough to get advise from likes of Warren Buffet when he wanted to fix the economy. And it worked.

But when it came to his socialist agenda, he went by his instincts and old democratic line. I guess he will have to learn it the hard way.
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Old 06-04-2009, 09:02 PM
looneytunezez looneytunezez is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc28262 View Post
That is the immaturity that comes with inexperience for Mr Change.
Mr Change was smart enough to get advise from likes of Warren Buffet when he wanted to fix the economy. And it worked.

But when it came to his socialist agenda, he went by his instincts and old democratic line. I guess he will have to learn it the hard way.
sad but true, i think.....

and i feel it might be unfortunate for a great country to be put into a tailspin.
hopefully, calmer and cooler heads prevail.
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  #8  
Old 06-05-2009, 03:09 AM
senthil1 senthil1 is offline
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The bill may not pass at all. But if passed 50-50 rule will stay. The reason is companies like IBM, Accenture, Oracle will not be impacted and they will gain by this rule as they need not compete with TCS,Infosys by rate. Only Top 20 Indian based companies will be impacted. Small companies will split themselves by having 49 employees. Generally when a law is passed and signed by President they do not bother about subsquent actions even India cancels Boeing Order or nuclear Treaty as they are win win for both countries. Indian government will not jeoperdise relations just because of immigration change as stakes are high. But I am sure Indian govt and companies will lobbey heavily to remove the 50-50 rule or kill the bill.

Quote:
Originally Posted by acecupid View Post
My personal opinion is that the bill will never pass in its current form. There will be lot of pressure from corporates to remove the 50-50 rule.
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Old 06-05-2009, 03:18 AM
senthil1 senthil1 is offline
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Also we may not know real intentions of Durbin and Grassley. I strongly beleive this is affensive action by them to pre empt any expansion of GC, H1b or recapture bill. If recapture bill is introduced they will push this also so that nothing will be passed for years and groups like IV, AILA may have to fight to save whatever we have it already

Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
The bill may not pass at all. But if passed 50-50 rule will stay. The reason is companies like IBM, Accenture, Oracle will not be impacted and they will gain by this rule as they need not compete with TCS,Infosys by rate. Only Top 20 Indian based companies will be impacted. Small companies will split themselves by having 49 employees. Generally when a law is passed and signed by President they do not bother about subsquent actions even India cancels Boeing Order or nuclear Treaty as they are win win for both countries. Indian government will not jeoperdise relations just because of immigration change as stakes are high. But I am sure Indian govt and companies will lobbey heavily to remove the 50-50 rule or kill the bill.
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Old 06-05-2009, 09:24 AM
gc28262 gc28262 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
Also we may not know real intentions of Durbin and Grassley. I strongly beleive this is affensive action by them to pre empt any expansion of GC, H1b or recapture bill. If recapture bill is introduced they will push this also so that nothing will be passed for years and groups like IV, AILA may have to fight to save whatever we have it already
Is that what you are hoping for ? I am sure even Grassley won't have thought about this idea.
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Old 06-05-2009, 10:50 AM
starscream starscream is offline
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What exactly is the status of the Durbin-Grassley bill. Is it scheduled for a Immigration subcommitee / Judiciary commmitee vote OR is there a hearing scheduled for it. The Senate Judicary calendar does not show anything.

I believe this bill was introduced in April. Has there been any new development on this bill - as it has got mention in businessweek and in infoweek in the last couple of days.

Last edited by starscream; 06-05-2009 at 10:59 AM.
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  #12  
Old 06-05-2009, 11:17 AM
ganguteli
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Default Senthil is a Grassley bill supporter

SENTHIL IS AN ANTI IMMIGRANT.

He says he got his greencard, then why is he on IV site everyday?
He tries to write broken and incorrect english so that nobody suspects him.

I say we ask him to post his full name, company and phone number on this forum. If he fails to do it, IV should ban him.
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Old 06-05-2009, 11:26 AM
qasleuth qasleuth is offline
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Dude senthil1, Let me ask you this: Don't you have anything better to do ? You got your GC and you hang around these forums not to help but throw a wrench whenever you can and bring up strawman arguments. I generally don't like to attack people for their views however they are different from mine but you have consistently displayed logic which shows a self-interest that is against the majority here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
will not be impacted and they will gain by this rule as they need not compete with TCS,Infosys by rate.
I take you have no idea about how the outsourcing model works. Per your logic, Indian outsourcers can quote low rates because of their onsite/offshore ratio as compared to IBM, Accenture etc. If only, that model depends on such a simple dynamic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
Generally when a law is passed and signed by President they do not bother about subsquent actions even India cancels Boeing Order or nuclear Treaty as they are win win for both countries.
Yes and No. It depends on the type of law being passed. You are right when we are talking about a law which deals with National Security or structural integrity of the country. When we are talking about gray area 'trade' impacted laws, subsequent consequences play a vital role. Boeing is not the only player in the market, the deal can easily go to Airbus. As you rightly stated, it is a win-win for both countries, meaning BOTH lose by the deal falling through. I am not supporting the logic given in the quoted article but disputing your intepretation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
Indian government will not jeoperdise relations just because of immigration change as stakes are high.
Go back and read the article. It says Indian Government might argue through diplomatic channels that its trade will be affected because of the proposed bill. Per the article, a large percent of forex inflows are from the industry which will be negatively affected and it is not "just an immigration change".

Quote:
Originally Posted by senthil1 View Post
Also we may not know real intentions of Durbin and Grassley. I strongly beleive this is affensive action by them to pre empt any expansion of GC, H1b or recapture bill. If recapture bill is introduced they will push this also so that nothing will be passed for years and groups like IV, AILA may have to fight to save whatever we have it already
Have you taken a role of some kind of "impartial" commentator for the past couple of years ? Do you have any idea of who Durbin and Grassley's contituents are ? or what their political aspirations are ? Your statements have nothing to do with their so called intentions but just wishful thinking as to what you think should happen. I would suggest, you take up some other avocation other than being a troll on this site.

Perhaps, they should take your green card away for crimes against english writing skills and displaying 4th grade logic in geo-political and economic affairs
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  #14  
Old 06-05-2009, 11:46 AM
ganguteli
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qasleuth

Hats off to you. Such trolls maybe white trash middle aged fat n lazy programmers who have nothing else to do than troll forums for losers guild or an Indian who thinks he is a white American after getting his green card.
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  #15  
Old 06-05-2009, 01:00 PM
senthil1 senthil1 is offline
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I also told that Indian government will try all possible ways to block the bill. But Indian government cannot do anything if the bill is passed and signed by President. They can do many things before that.

If the bill is passed the Indian companies will adjust themselves to hire more US citizens. But the bill is going no where atleast for now.
Boeing and nuclear Treaty are just examples I have mentioned and I know there are many things beyond that.

There is no self interest as I will not be impacted if GC is increased or H1b is increased. I also lost job in the economy but got a better job before the notice period ended. So I am well qualified and confident on my skills and I am not hesitant to change myself if needed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by qasleuth View Post
Dude senthil1, Let me ask you this: Don't you have anything better to do ? You got your GC and you hang around these forums not to help but throw a wrench whenever you can and bring up strawman arguments. I generally don't like to attack people for their views however they are different from mine but you have consistently displayed logic which shows a self-interest that is against the majority here.


I take you have no idea about how the outsourcing model works. Per your logic, Indian outsourcers can quote low rates because of their onsite/offshore ratio as compared to IBM, Accenture etc. If only, that model depends on such a simple dynamic.


Yes and No. It depends on the type of law being passed. You are right when we are talking about a law which deals with National Security or structural integrity of the country. When we are talking about gray area 'trade' impacted laws, subsequent consequences play a vital role. Boeing is not the only player in the market, the deal can easily go to Airbus. As you rightly stated, it is a win-win for both countries, meaning BOTH lose by the deal falling through. I am not supporting the logic given in the quoted article but disputing your intepretation.



Go back and read the article. It says Indian Government might argue through diplomatic channels that its trade will be affected because of the proposed bill. Per the article, a large percent of forex inflows are from the industry which will be negatively affected and it is not "just an immigration change".



Have you taken a role of some kind of "impartial" commentator for the past couple of years ? Do you have any idea of who Durbin and Grassley's contituents are ? or what their political aspirations are ? Your statements have nothing to do with their so called intentions but just wishful thinking as to what you think should happen. I would suggest, you take up some other avocation other than being a troll on this site.

Perhaps, they should take your green card away for crimes against english writing skills and displaying 4th grade logic in geo-political and economic affairs
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