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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1  
Old 07-26-2006, 01:26 PM
user2005 user2005 is offline
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Default Visa Statistics

Out of curiosity, I was browsing Visa Statistics section on Dept. of State site.
and found interesting report about immigrant visa numbers. This report is available on:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/statistics/statistics_2787.html

click on table number V,
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2005 (preliminary data)

It says they issued total 242,335 immigrant visa in employment preference categories for year 2005. This number is far beyond annual limit of 140,000 and majority of them were issued in EB3 category.

Does anybody know why?
And, can we expect similar pattern in this age of retrogression?
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  #2  
Old 07-26-2006, 01:35 PM
Jimi_Hendrix Jimi_Hendrix is offline
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Default first guess

some categories of visas are not subject to employment visa cap?
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  #3  
Old 07-26-2006, 01:42 PM
stucklabor stucklabor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user2005
Out of curiosity, I was browsing Visa Statistics section on Dept. of State site.
and found interesting report about immigrant visa numbers. This report is available on:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/st...tics_2787.html

click on table number V,
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2005 (preliminary data)

It says they issued total 242,335 immigrant visa in employment preference categories for year 2005. This number is far beyond annual limit of 140,000 and majority of them were issued in EB3 category.

Does anybody know why?
And, can we expect similar pattern in this age of retrogression?
User2005, I commend you on taking the initiative to find and understand these statistics.

The American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act, passed in 1999, recaptured over 100,000 unused EB green cards. Almost all of these recaptured green cards were given out last year, so last year was an anomalous year in terms of EB green card approval numbers. For whatever reason - probably that EB3 demand was very high - USCIS awarded most of these recaptures to EB3. EB1 also saw 65K approvals, approx 25K over the normal limit. EB2 was only about 43K, which led many of us to believe that EB2 demand was on par with supply and EB2 wouldn't have much of a retrogression problem.

Since all those recaptured numbers are exhausted, we can only expect 140K odd EB green cards per year going forward in the absence of legislation to recapture unused green cards from 2001 or increasing the EB GC limit.

Last edited by stucklabor; 07-26-2006 at 01:48 PM.
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  #4  
Old 07-26-2006, 02:41 PM
gimme Green!! gimme Green!! is offline
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Default 1?

So, that brings us back to one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stucklabor
User2005, I commend you on taking the initiative to find and understand these statistics.

The American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act, passed in 1999, recaptured over 100,000 unused EB green cards. Almost all of these recaptured green cards were given out last year, so last year was an anomalous year in terms of EB green card approval numbers. For whatever reason - probably that EB3 demand was very high - USCIS awarded most of these recaptures to EB3. EB1 also saw 65K approvals, approx 25K over the normal limit. EB2 was only about 43K, which led many of us to believe that EB2 demand was on par with supply and EB2 wouldn't have much of a retrogression problem.

Since all those recaptured numbers are exhausted, we can only expect 140K odd EB green cards per year going forward in the absence of legislation to recapture unused green cards from 2001 or increasing the EB GC limit.
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  #5  
Old 07-26-2006, 03:23 PM
andy garcia andy garcia is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by user2005
Out of curiosity, I was browsing Visa Statistics section on Dept. of State site.
and found interesting report about immigrant visa numbers. This report is available on:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/st...tics_2787.html

click on table number V,
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2005 (preliminary data)

It says they issued total 242,335 immigrant visa in employment preference categories for year 2005. This number is far beyond annual limit of 140,000 and majority of them were issued in EB3 category.

Q. Does anybody know why?
A VB Jan 05 AC21 contained several provisions intended to increase the availability of EB numbers. AC21 recaptured those EB numbers that were available but not used in FY99 and FY00, creating a “pool” of 130,107 numbers which could be allocated to applicants in the EB1, EB2, and EB3 categories once the annual EB numerical limit has been reached. Approximately 101,000 of these “pool” numbers remain available for use during FY-1005. AC21also removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for EB visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.(140000 + 101000 = 241000).
Q. can we expect similar pattern in this age of etrogression?
B]A[/b] VB Nov 05 During FY06, due to anticipated heavy demand, the AC21 provisions are not expected to apply, and the amount of EB numbers available to any single country will be subject to the 7% cap. It is anticipated that the addition of unused FY05 FB numbers and the remaining AC21 numbers to the 140,000 annual minimum will result in an FY06 annual EB limit of 152,000. This will mean an EB per-country limit for FY-2006 of approximately 10,650. To illustrate the effect of the reduced per-county limitation during FY06 on India, it should be noted that during FY05 India used approximately 47,175 EB numbers
Hi user2005;
These are the answers
andy
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  #6  
Old 07-26-2006, 07:17 PM
user2005 user2005 is offline
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Default

Thanks to stucklabor for explanation.

And, thanks to andy garcia for pointing out those visa bulletins. You must be doing lot of research on bulletins.

Does that mean in FY-2005, all visa applications were guaranteed?

It is interesting to understand that even after recaptured visas and no per-country limit in FY-2005, applications from oversubscribed countries are enough to create retrogression in FY-2006.

No offence to any country or person. In fact, I am from one of those!!
This thread is just to analyze visa allocation, and to forecast any positive pattern.
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  #7  
Old 07-27-2006, 01:51 AM
rbharol rbharol is offline
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Does anybody know how 140K visa per year are divided among different countries and catagories?
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  #8  
Old 07-27-2006, 02:34 AM
fromnaija fromnaija is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rbharol
Does anybody know how 140K visa per year are divided among different countries and catagories?
The numerical limit per country is set by Section 202 of INA which I believe is 7% for EB.

http://www.uscis.gov/lpBin/lpext.dll...htm#slb-act202
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  #9  
Old 07-27-2006, 09:21 AM
gimme Green!! gimme Green!! is offline
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Default Pipeline

Excellent research and analysis.

Is there some information on how many applicants are there in EB1, EB2 and EB3 for India and China that have retrogressed?

Trying to see based on the 7% allotment, how long it will be before the backlog is cleared.

Thanks,
GG

Quote:
Originally Posted by andy garcia
Hi user2005;
These are the answers
andy
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  #10  
Old 07-27-2006, 10:33 AM
Asian Asian is offline
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Default Immigration History

I am also curios if there is anyone who is familiar with immigration history. What we are going through may not be the first time or one time thing.

There must have been a similar incident in the past and the relief following the incident. If we could analyze that, we would be able to see a certain pattern that could help us predict what is going to happen in a certain period of time.

Last edited by Asian; 07-27-2006 at 06:01 PM.
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  #11  
Old 07-27-2006, 11:21 AM
fromnaija fromnaija is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asian
I am also curios if there is anyone who is familiar with immigration history. What we are going through may not be the first time or one time thing.

There must have been a similar incident in the past and the relief following the incident. If we could analyze that, we would be able to see a certain pattern and help us predict what is going to happen in a certain period of time.

I have been doing some research. I found that the 1965 Immigration Act reversed the decades of exclusion immigration policies of the past. You may read more about that Act here:

http://www.asian-nation.org/1965-immigration-act.shtml

I believe that the US is at another defining moment in its immigration history and Congress will take a decision (whether the members like it or not) that will bring relief to immigrants. This may not happen in the life of the current Congress but 2007 will bring some relief.

</End Crystal ball gazing>
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  #12  
Old 07-27-2006, 02:58 PM
whatamidoinghere whatamidoinghere is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gimme Green!!
Excellent research and analysis.

Is there some information on how many applicants are there in EB1, EB2 and EB3 for India and China that have retrogressed?

Trying to see based on the 7% allotment, how long it will be before the backlog is cleared.

Thanks,
GG
If we go by 7% quota, it will be a really long time before we (Indians) get GCs.
The reason why we get it faster is that a lot of unused visas from other countries come to us due to AC21. In 2004 India got 39k visas, whereas its quota is 10k. In 2005 India got 47k visas. The increase of 8k visas seem mainly due to its share of the 100k recaptured visas from the past.

I'm merely basing my statements on these two years of data
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf

If people from other countries suddenly become "smart" and start applying for employment visas in US, we are pretty much doomed. The recent visa bulletin indicates the that AC21 provisions cant be applied now because of demand from other countries. So did the folks from other countries suddenly become smart??
I guess not, there are no strong indicators for this. However one probable reason is due to PERM and backlog reduction efforts, a lot of pending LCs of other countries got approved at one shot causing this retrogression for us.

So is this temporary retrogression? Yes, if the unused visas continue to come to us. But if in case.... in case... CIR is passed with retrogression provisions stripped, and EB3 is going to be shared by "Guest workers", then I guess no unused visas will be available for EB3 India. So EB3 Indians can pack up and go home because by the time their cutoff date reaches their priority date they'll be retired from their job making them ineligible for employment based GC.
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  #13  
Old 07-27-2006, 03:23 PM
pappu pappu is offline
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Default ...on a lighter note

Quote:
Originally Posted by whatamidoinghere
in case... CIR is passed with retrogression provisions stripped, and EB3 is going to be shared by "Guest workers", then I guess no unused visas will be available for EB3 India. So EB3 Indians can pack up and go home because by the time their cutoff date reaches their priority date they'll be retired from their job making them ineligible for employment based GC.
Actually there is going to be an ammendment in CIR later this year, that will enable our children port our Green card application for their use. This is to ensure that even though we may be affected by retrogression all our lives, our children should not suffer. I think it is a very humane ammendment!
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Old 07-27-2006, 03:33 PM
eb3_nepa eb3_nepa is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pappu
Actually there is going to be an ammendment in CIR later this year, that will enable our children port our Green card application for their use. This is to ensure that even though we may be affected by retrogression all our lives, our children should not suffer. I think it is a very humane ammendment!
One more ammendment,

Recapture all green cards of people becoming citizens from green card holders. Also recapture all green cards of people who let them expire. Hey a LOT of effort goes into getting it, so why not maintain what has already been obtained ?
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  #15  
Old 07-27-2006, 10:22 PM
gimme_gc_asap gimme_gc_asap is offline
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[quote=whatamidoinghere]--------

If people from other countries suddenly become "smart" and start applying for employment visas in US, we are pretty much doomed. ------------------QUOTE]


May be you meant their populations swelled up to more than a billion like India from a few millions or their countries became poor all of a sudden.....

just trying to tell you that there are not more Indians in US just because they are smart....most important reason is India is second most populous country and second reason is that India is poor! Lets face it!

Now dont start arguing with me...I am from India too. just be considerate because this board is visited by people from a lot of different countries.
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