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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #406  
Old 01-08-2009, 06:20 PM
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Arrow eeeeeezzzzzz

If you were referring to this comment from Ron:
"I think that we will see quota relief this year. If so, your priority date will become current this year. That's the good news. The bad news is that this has nothing whatsoever to do with CIS processing, which will not only remain slow, but will undoubtedly get slower."

--I think he promised the questioner( whose EB3 Ind PD is :Oct 2003) and not for all.
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  #407  
Old 01-08-2009, 07:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo07 View Post
If you were referring to this comment from Ron:
"I think that we will see quota relief this year. If so, your priority date will become current this year. That's the good news. The bad news is that this has nothing whatsoever to do with CIS processing, which will not only remain slow, but will undoubtedly get slower."

--I think he promised the questioner( whose EB3 Ind PD is :Oct 2003) and not for all.
You are right, my bad. Must be misread that person as 2008 instead of 2003.
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  #408  
Old 01-10-2009, 01:51 AM
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Some stupid freak gave my a red saying 'yes SIR' for my above post. Actually, I would like to know a who the guy is. Just to let u know fella - I give a hoot to ur comment and ur red. Grow up dude...if u can't do something good for this forum and I can provide u a sucker.

Now, gimme a red for this too.
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  #409  
Old 01-10-2009, 03:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hydboy77 View Post
You said upto 2005, is it upto Dec 2005 or jan 2005 or some other date in 2005.

You also have to consider dependents while calculating the numbers. For example according to your analysis there might be roughly 18,500 EB2 India cases upto 2005, if we add dependents to this, 18500 + 18500 * 1.2 (1.2 dependennts for every applicant) = 44400, so even if we get 20000 spillover this year it will not be suffecient to cover everybody upto 2005. Please comment and correct me if I am wrong (I hope I am wrong)
Right that was ambiguous. I was caluculated until the end of 2005 (Dec 31).
There are already around 8% percent of dependents in my caluculations both in pending and approvals. So with that total EB2I pending until the end of the 2005 would be 38, 000 and more than 45% of these are of 2005 PD.
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  #410  
Old 01-10-2009, 11:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shiankuraaf View Post
Here is my take:
5000 is assumed to be used by the consular processesing. My conclusion is that it takes another
year or so for the EB2I to become current.

Please raise if any important thing/s I missed in this calculation.
In 2008 CP issuesd visa count for india was only 937.


Thanks,
MDix
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  #411  
Old 01-10-2009, 11:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDix View Post
In 2008 CP issuesd visa count for india was only 937.


Thanks,
MDix
That number was for last year and this year its going to be 3 or 4 more times as so many opted for CP. So it comes to around 3 or 4 thousand or may be little less.
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  #412  
Old 01-10-2009, 11:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shiankuraaf View Post
That number was for last year and this year its going to be 3 or 4 more times as so many opted for CP. So it comes to around 3 or 4 thousand or may be little less.
Sorry it's not 937 but 1257 world-wide in Eb2 category so 25% aprox for india comes 300 ( including spouse & childeren).
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableII.pdf.

Pls don't take it other way I am just trying to prove my point.

Thanks,
MDix
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  #413  
Old 02-20-2009, 11:36 AM
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EB2 India PD is going to be around 2007 or later.
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  #414  
Old 02-20-2009, 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
EB2 India PD is going to be around 2007 or later.
& EB3 India PD is going to be current much later(?).

~GCA
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  #415  
Old 02-20-2009, 11:45 AM
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Aren't you guys sick of doing all these predictions yet ???
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  #416  
Old 02-20-2009, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCAmigo View Post
& EB3 India PD is going to be current much later(?).

~GCA
Hopefully there will be immigration reform in this year.
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  #417  
Old 02-20-2009, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mirage View Post
Aren't you guys sick of doing all these predictions yet ???
I see sick people everywhere!

~GCA
P.S. It is Friday.
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  #418  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
EB2 India PD is going to be around 2007 or later.
Are you serious or just playing with our feelings....
__________________
Finally 485 Approved on -- 05/04/2011
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  #419  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:14 PM
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Priority Date
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May-07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael chertoff View Post
Are you serious or just playing with our feelings....


FACTS: In 2008 there are only 21092 Total certified labors(LCAs). And in 2005 there are 1350 for india out of 6133 total LCAs .

And it seems there wont be many certified labors in 2009 as well.



Year -- 2008 , 2007 , 2006 , 2005
---------------------------------------------------------
Applied -- 61997 , 98753 , 105960 , 14253
-----------------------------------------------------------
Certified -- 21092 , 85112 , 79782 , 6133


see this link for reference http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/sh...3813&page=1000

ASSUMPTIONS:

Based on the total LCAs for India, which are 1350, in 2005 every body agrees that EB2 India 2005 Priority dates will be cleared of very quickly once the PD touches it.


There are 21092 LCAs in 2008 out of which we couldnt know exactly how many of them fall in to EB1, EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5.

But Assume about 15 thousand of 21092 fall into EB1 and EB2 (Generally it will be around 2/3 of 21092).

So total visas needed for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 are 15*2.5 (dependents) =37,500

Available visas for EB1 and EB2 in 2008 = 140,000 * 2/3 = 102600 Visas

So available visas for spill over in 2008 are 102600 minus 37500= 65100.


As the labors are approved in 2008, They may need the Visas in 2008/2009. So this will cause the more spill overs available in 2009 than 2008. Because in 2008 there may be some guys from 2007 approved labors who need Visas in 2008 quota.





.

Last edited by vdlrao; 02-20-2009 at 12:45 PM.
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  #420  
Old 02-20-2009, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
EB2 India PD is going to be around 2007 or later.
vdlrao..we missed you.

when do you think the bulletin will hit october 2005? for eb2 -india
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