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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1  
Old 06-12-2009, 12:48 PM
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Default Why will EB retrogression not end in a year or two even without a CIR?

This is my thought process (also referred by Ron G):


July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.

We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.

Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers

so, 500K - 300K = 200K.

Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.

200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?

So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.

So next fiscal year, 2009-2010, if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.

Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.

I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
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  #2  
Old 06-12-2009, 12:57 PM
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Default

Ron Gotcher said something similar... they may be trying not take any more
applications from 2000-2009 until they finish the backlog. That may be one of the
reasons why they may have retrogressed to 2000. Just my 2 cents.
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  #3  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:00 PM
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Default

Interesting analysis.
However with country cap in place and if EB-ROW candidates are in plenty, India and China cannot advance even if visa numbers are available.
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  #4  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:08 PM
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Default given that USCIS donot accept any new app yes it can

To me here is KEY.

Either Country cap or recapture will end current backlog for India and China.

If both are pass then no more future backlog for india and china given that H1b limit stays 65k and strick rule for l1a / b

if none passes then no more chances for Eb2 with PD later 2007 and Eb3 with PD later 2004.
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  #5  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:12 PM
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Default now lets get to real figures..

Quote:
Originally Posted by willwin View Post
This is my thought process (also referred by Ron G):


July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.

We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.

Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers

so, 500K - 300K = 200K.

Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.

200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?

So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.

So next fiscal year, 2009-2010, if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.

Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.

I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
As per replies to senator from USCIS

EB2 india has 50k and Eb3 india has 70k apps. See last 10 years with horizontal or vertical fall none get more than 15k in a given year.

If they do get same spill over then Eb2 india needs 3 years and Eb3 india needs 4 years after Eb2 get clear. OR USCIS stop receiving app from any one for next 1 and half year and then start accepting agian. ( Which is not possible as per law ).

So bottom line is

Either Recapture or removing counrty cap will end current backlog , both will end current as well future backlog and none will make situation worse if more demand from ROW.
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  #6  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:15 PM
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Default One big missing piece in your analysis - Country quota

One big missing piece in your analysis - Country quota.

As per your analysis, there are around 125K pending cases. If there is no spill over (that is the case this year and that will be the case for the coming years as per State dept.), then EB3-I or EB2-I gets only 2700 visas per year.

Now, please redo your math and you can easily see that the current retrogress might look like there is hardly any retrogression.

Quote:
Originally Posted by willwin View Post
This is my thought process (also referred by Ron G):


July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.

We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.

Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers

so, 500K - 300K = 200K.

Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.

200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?

So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.

So next fiscal year, 2009-2010, if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.

Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.

I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
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  #7  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:17 PM
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Default

Outlook is very very grim without a bill from what I understand. EB3 India is going to be in a hole and EB3 PDs that are 2006 and later have a really long wait time ahead that they are not imagining. We are all hopeful by nature and look forward to visa bulletins with a positive attitude but such PD folks may be disappointed month after month for several years. For EB2 India it is important to know number of ported cases. EB3ROW folks also need to worry now. Their journey may not be that smooth due to spillover rules and high demand. We need to get data via FOIA to make a better guesstimate. Without such data we will hear various theories, predictions and interpretations from various websites and blogs that may not be always true.
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Last edited by pappu; 06-12-2009 at 01:20 PM.
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  #8  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:23 PM
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Default but FOIA is also not in near future..

Quote:
Originally Posted by pappu View Post
Outlook is very very grim without a bill from what I understand. EB3 India is going to be in a hole and EB3 PDs that are 2006 and later have a really long wait time ahead that they are not imagining. We are all hopeful by nature and look forward to visa bulletins with a positive attitude but such PD folks may be disappointed month after month for several years. For EB2 India it is important to know number of ported cases. EB3ROW folks also need to worry now. Their journey may not be that smooth due to spillover rules and high demand. We need to get data via FOIA to make a better guesstimate. Without such data we will hear various theories, predictions and interpretations from various websites and blogs that may not be always true.
As I remember our FOIA can take as long as 2 years to get processes. Now that they have preadjusted almost all cases ( Means they have all required information on hand for all pending EB based AOS , can IV push USCIS to work on our FOIA ? ) FOIA result can help us lot to convince lawmakers when CIR time will in sep - oct.
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  #9  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:32 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by willwin View Post
This is my thought process (also referred by Ron G):


July 2007 brought in approximately 500K 485 cases.

We do not know how many cases were pending as of June 2007.

Fiscal year 2007-2008 USCIS used over 140K EB VISA numbers (I think it was around 155K).
Fiscal year 2008-2009 USCIS will use atleast 140K EB VISA numbers

so, 500K - 300K = 200K.

Assuming USICS approval rate is 85%; 75K of 500K are denied.

200K - 75K = 125K EB cases pending from the July 2007 cases.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?

So, 150 K plus whatever that was pending as of June 2007.

So next fiscal year, 2009-2010, if USCIS uses the quota 140 K, most or all of the 2007 filings will be cleared. If not EB3 I, definitely EB2 I and C, EB3 ROW will be cleared.

Depending on new filings, EB3 I might retrogress but retrogression might come within 3-4 years instead of current 8 years.

I strongly believe, beginning Jan 2010, dates for EB2 (I and C) will move forward heaps and bounds followed by EB3 ROW.
Good analysis.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?


This is the key stat here. It all depends on how many apps that are in the current category now get filed in the next few years. If there are no more new EB applicants, we should see all pending apps to get approved in a year or two max. The 4 current categories now are EB1 ROW, EB1 India/China and EB2 ROW. If there are 140K apps coming in every year from these categories, we'll never see any movement for EB2/EB3. Anybody know the average number of applicants the last few years from these categories? From the recent news, we know that demand for EB1 India and EB1 China has grown substantially. In my opinion, setting a cutoff date for EB1 India/China would be the best thing for USCIS to do now. That will prevent any new visa usage for EB1 India/China and allow EB2 and EB3 categories to catch up.
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  #10  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:44 PM
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Default but how can they set cutt off date for Eb1

Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdude View Post
Good analysis.

Additions: from all current categories - may be 25 K in 2 years?


This is the key stat here. It all depends on how many apps that are in the current category now get filed in the next few years. If there are no more new EB applicants, we should see all pending apps to get approved in a year or two max. The 4 current categories now are EB1 ROW, EB1 India/China and EB2 ROW. If there are 140K apps coming in every year from these categories, we'll never see any movement for EB2/EB3. Anybody know the average number of applicants the last few years from these categories? From the recent news, we know that demand for EB1 India and EB1 China has grown substantially. In my opinion, setting a cutoff date for EB1 India/China would be the best thing for USCIS to do now. That will prevent any new visa usage for EB1 India/China and allow EB2 and EB3 categories to catch up.
If they get continus apps from Eb1 in each quater how can they set up cutoff date ? ( I mean their demand with in range of supply ) .. isn't that illegal ?
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  #11  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:46 PM
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Default

Most of the folks are missing the point about the prior years approval numbers. All the approvals from 2004 - 2008 are padded with huge visa number from FB spillover and the recapture provision of AC21. From this year onwards we have to live with the usual ~3K per country per category limit. This is the reason why Charles Oppenheim is predicting decade long wait for EB2 I/C and all EB3's. We continue to beat down Oppenheim claim with our own numbers, but he knows more about visa numbers than any one of us.
Let us dream about recapture being a panacea to the problem. There is only limited amount of visa's to be recaptured (~180K) even with that not all categories can become current. Also during that last recapture debates there where lots of suggestions to stagger the usage of recaptured visa over a long time frame like 5 yrs. Even with recapture, the date movement will not be rapid, but it will be remarkably better than what it is now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
As per replies to senator from USCIS

EB2 india has 50k and Eb3 india has 70k apps. See last 10 years with horizontal or vertical fall none get more than 15k in a given year.

If they do get same spill over then Eb2 india needs 3 years and Eb3 india needs 4 years after Eb2 get clear. OR USCIS stop receiving app from any one for next 1 and half year and then start accepting agian. ( Which is not possible as per law ).

So bottom line is

Either Recapture or removing counrty cap will end current backlog , both will end current as well future backlog and none will make situation worse if more demand from ROW.

Last edited by mpadapa; 06-12-2009 at 01:50 PM.
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  #12  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:56 PM
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Default

There is a saying in accounting world "Figures donít lie, liars will figure it out." We keep on doing the same thing. Try to make numbers that look good. The truth is the dates for India And china cannot and will not move until some legislative changes are made. The legislative changes will only happen when we all get united and ask for those changes aloud. The key to success is unity and joint participation.
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  #13  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:56 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
If they get continus apps from Eb1 in each quater how can they set up cutoff date ? ( I mean their demand with in range of supply ) .. isn't that illegal ?
Most recently, the cutoff dates for EB3-India was set on Jan 05 bulletin and for EB2-India on October 05. Not sure about the other categories, but it seems to me that they either do it at the start of a quarter or at the beginning of a fiscal year. Based on their comments, it does seem like demand is starting to exceed supply for those EB1 categories.

I feel like EB1 India and China will have cutoff dates beginning October 09.
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  #14  
Old 06-12-2009, 01:59 PM
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Thumbs up How does IV help now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pappu View Post
Outlook is very very grim without a bill from what I understand. EB3 India is going to be in a hole and EB3 PDs that are 2006 and later have a really long wait time ahead that they are not imagining. We are all hopeful by nature and look forward to visa bulletins with a positive attitude but such PD folks may be disappointed month after month for several years. For EB2 India it is important to know number of ported cases. EB3ROW folks also need to worry now. Their journey may not be that smooth due to spillover rules and high demand. We need to get data via FOIA to make a better guesstimate. Without such data we will hear various theories, predictions and interpretations from various websites and blogs that may not be always true.

Pappu,
I appreciate your input, but IV members have been talking about numbers and numbers and numbers for last 2 years in a row.

What will the numbers reveal? I had been a regular blogger at IV, but I stopped coming up here because.

1. All talk and no Walk
2. New members come aboard, are rude and offer no pragmatic approach.
3. All these bloggers give ideas and critique each other.
4. What happened to the March1 09st rally in DC?


Why has IV not taken a pragmatic approach, don't take me wrong I respect what you have done and other approaches in the past. But IV is using same approach for a new problem, the end result-----Failure


I joined this community after july fiasco, and have kept close watch on dates, everyday members keep suggesting something or the other. I don't mind being a donor to IV or contributing little what I have, But I need to see some big movement and results.

I did all the stupid calling to congress senators
Did sending of letters to the White house

what was the result? If IV wants core members and new members to donate and be a part of something bigger than a website, then please initiate something big like a rally.


Just because their are less members to join, does not excuse a true purpose of a rally.

Some of core members of IV keep telling other members:

1. Join your local chapter
2. Be a donor,

I understand all this, but I as a visiting members and the people coming on here, want to see a true and real reason to be a part of IV and not just a website where immigrants come and breathe out their frusturations July Fiasco turned to be advantageous to a few members, but was a mistake for members like me and other members who could not file at that time.

Please prove me wrong and IV to be something more than a website, please initiate something big and real, and not just comments. I an aware of the achievements in the past, but it was past 3 years ago. For last three years immigrant's feelings have been played around too many times. Same old talks will not bring upon a change, SOMETHING BIG NEEDS TO BE DONE NOW BEFORE THE CIR BILL takes place. So people are more aware.

Show us IV core is more than words! Conduct something bigger that will attract new members and donors to this organization.

I as a professional can tell you all now--- passive movement, sending letters, long term planning with no actions will not help


People have left IV, who are so disheartened and believe this organization has lost its eedge and is all talk and no walk above all a money scam.

Prove them wrong and do something big,

Last edited by kumarc123; 06-12-2009 at 02:04 PM.
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  #15  
Old 06-12-2009, 02:01 PM
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Default It will not make all catetogies current.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpadapa View Post
Most of the folks are missing the point about the prior years approval numbers. All the approvals from 2004 - 2008 are padded with huge visa number from FB spillover and the recapture provision of AC21. From this year onwards we have to live with the usual ~3K per country per category limit. This is the reason why Charles Oppenheim is predicting decade long wait for EB2 I/C and all EB3's. We continue to beat down Oppenheim claim with our own numbers, but he knows more about visa numbers than any one of us.
Let us dream about recapture being a panacea to the problem. There is only limited amount of visa's to be recaptured (~180K) even with that not all categories can become current. Also during that last recapture debates there where lots of suggestions to stagger the usage of recaptured visa over a long time frame like 5 yrs. Even with recapture, the date movement will not be rapid, but it will be remarkably better than what it is now.
Yeah you are right. 180k visas will clean almost will 2006 end but then those 2007 and 2008 onwards has to live with 3k apps. removing counrty cap along with Recapture helps all ..
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