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All other Green Card Issues I-140/I-485, Family Based Green Card

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  #6496  
Old 01-10-2013, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CKR View Post
Thanks for the link.
My educated guess is we might see EB2-I move to around Jan 2008 by End of fiscal year 2013 at the very best and be stuck in there for some time.
hmm it will Based on EB3-Eb2 porting .. and spill overs ..
we could only expect less spill overs from EB1 ..
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  #6497  
Old 01-10-2013, 12:24 PM
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I don't think the dates for EB2-I are going to go anywhere till the last quarter of this FY.

I think all the spillovers would be accounted only in the last 2 months of this FY.
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  #6498  
Old 01-10-2013, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by chtummala View Post
hmm it will Based on EB3-Eb2 porting .. and spill overs ..
we could only expect less spill overs from EB1 ..
I think mostly will depend on how much EB2 ROW uses its quota. The demand data for EB2 ROW appears reasonable as per this latest info.
EB1 could give us something unless there are a lot of the "multinational managers" from India showing up.
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  #6499  
Old 01-10-2013, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
I think mostly will depend on how much EB2 ROW uses its quota. The demand data for EB2 ROW appears reasonable as per this latest info.
EB1 could give us something unless there are a lot of the "multinational managers" from India showing up.
we used to get spill overs from eb4 eb5 ..
we can not expect them as eb5 usage is high ..
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  #6500  
Old 01-10-2013, 01:07 PM
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I dont think any spillover has been applied to this point. With Q1 of the fiscal year in the books and 2 out of 3 Q2 bulletins out, we're left with 7 months. Unless number usage has been at or near 10% each month, sticking EB2-I to 2004-SEP doesnt make sense. If the number usage is indeed at 10% in each month of Q1, then there isnt any significant spillover we should expect. We may end the year at or near 1-JAN-2005 instead of getting into 2008 as was being discussed last spring.

Oh, what a difference one winter makes...
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  #6501  
Old 01-10-2013, 01:20 PM
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I personally have no clue as to how folks make predictions. Simply based on the latest demand data, the E2 ROW demand is small so there should be lateral spillover. Again I have no clue how the E2 ROW demand is decided. The reality is that they had greened lots of folks with PDs all the way upto Aug/sept 08 during march 2012. Ofcourse E3-E2 porting has impact but we have no idea on how much of that is happening.
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  #6502  
Old 01-10-2013, 01:26 PM
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Default where is Teddy, please comment

Teddy and experts , will really appreciate your comments on FEB VB and latest DD
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  #6503  
Old 01-10-2013, 03:58 PM
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Default EB3-I Movement

It seems EB3 I might move a little faster towards the end 3rd quarter as EB3 ROW PD's will progress beyond August2007 and it takes atleast 3 to 6 months minimum to appove a I485.
and they would not want to waste any visas so some would be given to EB3I .This is just my assumption.Lets hope for the best.
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  #6504  
Old 01-10-2013, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by gujju View Post
It seems EB3 I might move a little faster towards the end 3rd quarter as EB3 ROW PD's will progress beyond August2007 and it takes atleast 3 to 6 months minimum to appove a I485.
and they would not want to waste any visas so some would be given to EB3I .This is just my assumption.Lets hope for the best.
false ...
eb3i is over subscribed ..
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  #6505  
Old 01-10-2013, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by desitiger View Post
If the Demand Data Used in the Determination for Feb 2013 for EB2 - I Prior to January 1, 2005 is 275 and annual EB2-I quota is 2,803. If the supply VS demand is 1:10 Why the cut-off date is frozen in time by 01-SEP-04. Not even moving by inch.

Can anyone explain this logic?
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  #6506  
Old 01-10-2013, 05:20 PM
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My gut feeling is: Dates for EB2-I won't move for another few months. The dates would move a lot in the last 2 months of this FY.
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  #6507  
Old 01-10-2013, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by unlucky_GC View Post
If the Demand Data Used in the Determination for Feb 2013 for EB2 - I Prior to January 1, 2005 is 275 and annual EB2-I quota is 2,803. If the supply VS demand is 1:10 Why the cut-off date is frozen in time by 01-SEP-04. Not even moving by inch.

Can anyone explain this logic?
This is pure guess: They greened more E2I than they could do per year (beyond even spillover amount) last year. This year they are very cautious and have frozen E2I till all pending E2ROW etc and older E2I + E3 to E2 porting cases are cleared. By mid 2013 they will have a better idea about usage of the other catagories (E2ROW/EB1 etc) and can potentially start passing on spillovers to E2I.
The most important thing I can see is that; Even including E3-E2 porting cases we have seen very few approvals this year (maybe a few dozens not more). I personally dont think they have exhausted even the 2800 annual limit that E2I has.
However, we need to wait for detailed analytical posts from the likes of Teddy to get a better picture.
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  #6508  
Old 01-11-2013, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
This is pure guess: They greened more E2I than they could do per year (beyond even spillover amount) last year. This year they are very cautious and have frozen E2I till all pending E2ROW etc and older E2I + E3 to E2 porting cases are cleared. By mid 2013 they will have a better idea about usage of the other catagories (E2ROW/EB1 etc) and can potentially start passing on spillovers to E2I.
The most important thing I can see is that; Even including E3-E2 porting cases we have seen very few approvals this year (maybe a few dozens not more). I personally dont think they have exhausted even the 2800 annual limit that E2I has.
However, we need to wait for detailed analytical posts from the likes of Teddy to get a better picture.
There was a bit of bump in EB2-ROW usage late last year that caught CO offguard. He had to put a cutoff for EB2-ROW to stay under the cap...and then when fiscal 2013 quota opened, he compensated by 'accounting' for them. Thats why you see the EB2-ROW go from a cutoff date in SEP and OCT to being C now.

That being said, the demand of 275 prior to 1-JAN-2005 is still too high to move PD by EB2-I quota alone. In fact, this number is inching up (was 225 in 2012-11-08 DD) which is a sign that monthly country quota is unable to account for demand....most of the demand is coming from porting.
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  #6509  
Old 01-11-2013, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by unlucky_GC View Post
If the Demand Data Used in the Determination for Feb 2013 for EB2 - I Prior to January 1, 2005 is 275 and annual EB2-I quota is 2,803. If the supply VS demand is 1:10 Why the cut-off date is frozen in time by 01-SEP-04. Not even moving by inch.

Can anyone explain this logic?
2800 per yr means 233 per month ..
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  #6510  
Old 01-11-2013, 02:40 PM
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The overall inventory prior to 1-JAN-2005 according to October inventory report was at 638 for EB2-I and 25,800 for EB3-I. With a reduction of 1700 in DD from EB3-I in just 3 months when only 670 visas were available, porting and demand destruction is around 1130 for the quarter.
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