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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:11 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default Just talking to me - When I am going to get my GC

Before you read my post
1. This calculation only about EB2 (Mostly IND and Some China)
2. This nothing aginest EB3 Guys
3. I have my calculation regarding the Spill Over (For EB and FB) I will post them in a saparate post later (in one week, Giving them finishing touch)
4. If you feel my predictions are utterly wrong please give me some constructive advise or igone the post.
5. I am EB2-INDIA PD:MARCH 07, 2008. I know I have waited nothing for my GC when compared to other friends in this forum. I wish my GC come soon ofcourse after one day who are waiting for it more than me. I am not greedy just hopeful.
6. I have made all these calculation not based on Visa Numbers recapture Bill

NOW GO ON

Last edited by polapragada; 09-10-2008 at 12:17 AM.
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  #2  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:12 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default Guess

EB2 INDIA Guess
Pending EB2
Available#
Remarks
Info#
Current PD
August 1, 2006
Expecting Any Retrogessing - Yes
March 1, 2006
Cases Between RETRO DATE - CPD
1000
Approx
Back Log Cases _Prior to 2006
2500
Approx
Cases Between CPD - FY2006 END
1400
Approx
Cases in FY2007
7600
Counting PW III, PW IV (Based on DOL STAT)
Cases in FY2008
3000
Counting PW III, PW IV (Approved + Pending)
Just till my PD (Mar 2008) (Based on DOL STAT) For you case change Above and this numbers accordingly

Total Cases Before Me
15500
Add 10% EB3->EB2 FY 2009 With Higher PD
750
Add 10% EB3->EB2 FY 2010 With Higher PD
750
Total Cases Before Me With Guess
17000
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  #3  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:13 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Average Case - Most likely (50%)
OCT 2008 - DEC 2008 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

January 1, 2007
JAN 2009 - JUN 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some 2006 Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2009 - SEP 2009 FY2009 END Allocated Numbers

3500

June 1, 2007
OCT 2009 - DEC 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

Oct 1, 2007 (I believe by End of 1Q FY 2010 all
FY 2007 and Backlogcases will be cleared)

JAN 2010 - JUN 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2010 - SEP 2010 FY2010 END Allocated Numbers

3000

If I am Lucky I will File my 485 At this time else
No Problem

OCT 2010 - DEC 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

I am IN. Apr 1, 2008. By End of 1Q of FY2011 I will have my Card By New year 2011 Celebrations. Also CHINA EB2 may be Eual to ROW. Expect EB3 to gain more spills
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  #4  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:14 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Luckiest Case - Not very likely (5%)
If all PW III are not EB2 if only 66% are EB2
Spill Overs are More

OCT 2008 - DEC 2008 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

February 1, 2007
JAN 2009 - JUN 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some 2006 Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2009 - SEP 2009 FY2009 END Allocated Numbers

4500

Oct 1, 2007 (I believe by End of FY 2009 all
FY 2007 and Backlogcases will be cleared)

OCT 2009 - DEC 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

I am IN. By End of 1Q of FY2010 I will have my Card
By New year 2010 Celebrations. April 1,2008

JAN 2010 - JUN 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2010 - SEP 2010 FY2010 END Allocated Numbers

4000

FY 2008 Will be cleared
OCT 2010 - DEC 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

EB2 India become Just like ROW. Yes Current
See back at 2005 Mid when the problems started for EB2 INDIA. Also CHINA EB2
This also a festivel time for EB3 Because from next year on most of the spills will fall to EB3
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  #5  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:15 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Lucky Case I - Chances (15%)
If all PW III are not EB2 if only 66% are EB2
OCT 2008 - DEC 2008 Allocated Numers/VB Dates
3300
February 1, 2007
JAN 2009 - JUN 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates
0
Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2009 - SEP 2009 FY2009 END Allocated Numbers
3500
August 1, 2007
OCT 2009 - DEC 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates
3300
Jan 1,2008
JAN 2010 - JUN 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates
0
Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2010 - SEP 2010 FY2010 END Allocated Numbers
3000
I am IN. By End of FY2010 I will file my 485. April 1,2008
OCT 2010 - DEC 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates
3300
Sep 1, 2008 Almost FY 2008 will be cleared
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  #6  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:15 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Lucky Case II- Few Chances (10%)
Spill Overs are More
OCT 2008 - DEC 2008 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

January 1, 2007
JAN 2009 - JUN 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2009 - SEP 2009 FY2009 END Allocated Numbers

4500

August 1, 2007
OCT 2009 - DEC 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

February 1, 2008
JAN 2010 - JUN 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2010 - SEP 2010 FY2010 END Allocated Numbers

4000

I am IN. By End of FY2010 I will file my 485. June 1,2008
OCT 2010 - DEC 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

FY 2008 Will be cleared
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  #7  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:16 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Worst case- Few Chances (10%)
No Much Spills & No Horizontal Spill
OCT 2008 - DEC 2008 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

January 1, 2007
JAN 2009 - JUN 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2009 - SEP 2009 FY2009 END Allocated Numbers

700

Mar 1 2007 Just like 2005. I will say 2005 is worst year in the history of EB2. See the stats
OCT 2009 - DEC 2009 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

September 1, 2007
JAN 2010 - JUN 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2010 - SEP 2010 FY2010 END Allocated Numbers

500

November 1, 2007
OCT 2010 - DEC 2010 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

3300

February 1, 2008
JAN 2011 - JUN 2011 Allocated Numers/VB Dates

0

Need to wait for Rest of the Areas Spill Over
Will get retrogessed to some old Date But need not worry. Just dry time

JUL 2011 - SEP 2011 FY2011 END Allocated Numbers

500

I am In. I may file 485. April 1, 2008
OCT 2011 - DEC 2011 FY2012 Allocated Numbers

3300

In Any Case I am IN
Magical case (5%)
GOD
No Logic, No Stats all Magic
Unpredictable case (5%)
USICS
What to say??
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  #8  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:18 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default Cheers

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  #9  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:36 AM
mita mita is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
02/15/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/03/2007
Compare
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 161
mita is a name known to all mita is a name known to all mita is a name known to all mita is a name known to all mita is a name known to all mita is a name known to all
Default Good logic or waste of time?

You have spent a lot of your valuable time in this analysis and I personally think that all this analysis by you or any other person will hold good only if USCIS follows set of rules.
Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada View Post
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  #10  
Old 09-10-2008, 12:41 AM
polapragada polapragada is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/02/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/31/2009
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 117
polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold polapragada is a splendid one to behold
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mita View Post
You have spent a lot of your valuable time in this analysis and I personally think that all this analysis by you or any other person will hold good only if USCIS follows set of rules.
Exactly that is what my last case
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  #11  
Old 09-10-2008, 03:54 AM
meridiani.planum meridiani.planum is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/01/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/10/2007
Compare
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 691
meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute meridiani.planum has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada View Post
EB2 INDIA Guess
Pending EB2
Available#
Remarks
Info#
Current PD
August 1, 2006
Expecting Any Retrogessing - Yes
March 1, 2006
Cases Between RETRO DATE - CPD
1000
Approx
Back Log Cases _Prior to 2006
2500
Approx
Cases Between CPD - FY2006 END
1400
Approx
Cases in FY2007
7600
Counting PW III, PW IV (Based on DOL STAT)
Cases in FY2008
3000
Counting PW III, PW IV (Approved + Pending)
Just till my PD (Mar 2008) (Based on DOL STAT) For you case change Above and this numbers accordingly

Total Cases Before Me
15500
Add 10% EB3->EB2 FY 2009 With Higher PD
750
Add 10% EB3->EB2 FY 2010 With Higher PD
750
Total Cases Before Me With Guess
17000
you have a PD of march 2008, and you believe there are only 17000 people before you in the queue?
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  #12  
Old 09-16-2008, 12:03 PM
osxnewbee osxnewbee is offline
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Feb-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
08/09/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140+I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/09/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 3
osxnewbee will become famous soon enough
Default

Nice study. Not to discourage you but this obsession is not good for your health at this early stage. I know my personal friend who turned up last week and looks like a begger on streets, much upset with the GC processing and too much reading of various cases.

Anyways, its upto you. Refering to meridiani.planum, and someone who earlier posted this link Dept. Home Land Security: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics - 2007 , there are total of 1052415 issued PRs in 2007. During last three years a total of 415K approved for EB2 & EB3.

Now considering July Fiasco where about 2.5 Mil applied (Ref: Texas Service Center Processing Dates )afresh, I strongly belive there would be more than 17K before you. Anyways good luck and hope for youy FY 12 estimate.

I am settled for Oct 2009 estimate since the begining Feb 2005.
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  #13  
Old 09-16-2008, 01:18 PM
2008FebEb2 2008FebEb2 is offline
Member
Priority Date
:
Feb-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
05/13/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 54
2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light 2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light 2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light 2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light 2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light 2008FebEb2 is a glorious beacon of light
Talking Imagine my situation

I am EB2 with PD Feb 22, 2008.

My previous employer started my process in Nov 2005. But he was an idiot and totally fooled me with the entire process. I wasted until June 2007.

In June 2007, I finally changed my job and started the entire process again. It took the new employer 9 months to file for GC.

Anyways, I am waiting for this GC shiet for the past 3yrs. Eventhough the process never started with the previous employer, he was telling me that they were working on it and totally made a jackass out of me.

I have lost patience. I came to US in 2000 Aug for MS. Its been more than 8yrs. Started working since 2003 Sept.

In 5yrs of working in USA, i just reached the I140 stage. Just sucks.

But its ok. I learned to live with it even though sometimes I get frustrated.
__________________
PD - 2/20/2008
Category - EB-2
Labor Approved - 4/18/2008
I-140 Filed - 5/13/2008
I-140 Approved - 7/28/2008
I-485 -

Came in Aug 2000 for MS. Its been 8 Long years.
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  #14  
Old 09-16-2008, 01:24 PM
funny funny is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-03
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
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Posts: 199
funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold funny is a splendid one to behold
Default Call Call

H.R 5882 is scheduled for tommorow....Now start calling.....CALL CALL
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  #15  
Old 09-16-2008, 01:40 PM
485Mbe4001 485Mbe4001 is offline
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
May-02
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/20/2002
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/20/2004
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 630
485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute 485Mbe4001 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

I think there are at least 50-60k waiting with a pre 2008 EB 2 I PD. My estimate is based on Ron Gotchers calculation that 40% percent of the total EB applicants are from India, out of which 60% are EB2(current trend) and 40% are EB3..i may be wrong, only USCIS knows the truth and they are not very forthcoming.

Lets spend time making the calls for the recapture bill. For now that is the only thing which will help reduce the backlogs significantly.
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