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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:18 PM
singhsa3 singhsa3 is offline
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Default Eb2: I feel like shouting but is it that bad?

I feel like tearing my clothes, pulling my hair , breaking my utensils and throwing up, upon seen DEC'07 visa bulletin.

How bad can it get now. But wait some say there may be a ray of light...

See these sentences in visa bulletin
"Second: Demand during October and the first week of November has already used over 38 percent of the annual limit. It is hoped that the December retrogressions will return monthly number use within the target range. If not, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out. "

One interpretation is following:
Last visa bulletin has Apr 2004 has cut of date for EB2, India. Assuming that USCIS took visa numbers out for all the applicants till that date ( we don't know if that is the case) then what it means that they ( people with PD before April 2004) made only 38% of total annual visa limit (i.e 3-4K applicants). In other words, 62% visa alottment ( remaining 6K) should be made to people with priority dates after April 2004, in the coming quarters.

But don't get happy yet.
Even if this interpretation is true, the total annual limit for India is still 9K, including spouses and children. So, what it means that
people with priority dates from late 2004 to present still has veryyyy long wait ahead.

So the answer is.
Yes it is that bad!
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Last edited by singhsa3; 11-15-2007 at 11:20 AM.
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  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:32 PM
BharatPremi BharatPremi is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3 View Post
I feel like tearing my clothes, pulling my hair , breaking my utensils and throwing up, upon seen DEC'07 visa bulletin.

How bad can it get now. But wait some say there may be a ray of light...

See these sentences in visa bulletin
"Second: Demand during October and the first week of November has already used over 38 percent of the annual limit. It is hoped that the December retrogressions will return monthly number use within the target range. If not, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out. "

One interpretation is following:
Last visa bulletin has Apr 2004 has cut of date for EB2, India. Assuming that USCIS took visa numbers out for all the applicants till that date ( we don't know if that is the case) then what it means that they ( people with PD before April 2004) made only 38% of total annual visa limit (i.e 3-4K applicants). In other words, 62% visa alottment ( remaining 6K) should be made to people with priority dates after April 2004, in the coming quarters.

But don't get happy yet.
Even if this interpretation is true, the total annual limit for India is still 9K, including spouses and children. So, what it means that
people with priority dates from late 2005 to present still has veryyyy long wait ahead.
Perfect. Thanks.
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  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:32 PM
chanduv23 chanduv23 is offline
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Default

Rapid fluctuations make it hard to predict the actual situation. We cannot assume anything here.

Retrogression must be resolved ASAP
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  #4  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:33 PM
anilsal anilsal is offline
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Default Well, the EB3 community has

been doing the things you mention for a long long time now.

Let us channelize our frustrations by becoming active at the local city/state chapter level.
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  #5  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:36 PM
Leo07 Leo07 is offline
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Arrow Please stop Predictions for now...

Only Actions...No predictions
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  #6  
Old 11-14-2007, 10:39 PM
sapota sapota is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3 View Post
I feel like tearing my clothes, pulling my hair , breaking my utensils and throwing up, upon seen DEC'07 visa bulletin.

How bad can it get now. But wait some say there may be a ray of light...

See these sentences in visa bulletin
"Second: Demand during October and the first week of November has already used over 38 percent of the annual limit. It is hoped that the December retrogressions will return monthly number use within the target range. If not, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out. "

One interpretation is following:
Last visa bulletin has Apr 2004 has cut of date for EB2, India. Assuming that USCIS took visa numbers out for all the applicants till that date ( we don't know if that is the case) then what it means that they ( people with PD before April 2004) made only 38% of total annual visa limit (i.e 3-4K applicants). In other words, 62% visa alottment ( remaining 6K) should be made to people with priority dates after April 2004, in the coming quarters.

But don't get happy yet.
Even if this interpretation is true, the total annual limit for India is still 9K, including spouses and children. So, what it means that
people with priority dates from late 2005 to present still has veryyyy long wait ahead.
Dont assume everyone in EB2 India with PD before Apr 2004 has gotten their visas alloted yet. My PD is before that & am still waiting. unless somehow they alloted a visa number for me in Nov. And then there was this optimist who kept digging manure in search of diamonds.!!!!
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  #7  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:26 PM
badrishdavey badrishdavey is offline
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Default

We should always be optimistic . Its good for health and mind ..Even Krishna has said in mahabharat..karma kar..dont expect things to always go on your way..If you path is of dharma then you will succeed. guys dont think i m just talking too much of spiritual ..but dude trust me it works !!!!
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  #8  
Old 11-15-2007, 04:37 AM
meridiani.planum meridiani.planum is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by singhsa3 View Post
One interpretation is following:
Last visa bulletin has Apr 2004 has cut of date for EB2, India. Assuming that USCIS took visa numbers out for all the applicants till that date ( we don't know if that is the case) then what it means that they ( people with PD before April 2004) made only 38% of total annual visa limit (i.e 3-4K applicants). In other words, 62% visa alottment ( remaining 6K) should be made to people with priority dates after April 2004, in the coming quarters.
thats not how PDs work. If the PD has been made Jan 2002 it means allocations prior to that date have been made, and all others from that date onwards will be part of the 62%. ie. that leftover 62% is not for people with April 04 and later, its for people with Jan 2002 and later.

From the VBs:
"The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits."

We are in deep poopoo here. Its going to be a while before EB2-India gets back to 2004... All BEC guys from Jan 2003 PD have just filed in June/July and they are going to be slowly processed first before USCIS gets to 2004, then to 2005...
all approvals seen recently in for EB2-India have been mostly for folks with RD of 2005 (& PD of 2003-2004). Extremely few June07 RD approvals, means those people are still in the pipeline and wil be taking up the visa numbers in the next 6-9 months...

Last edited by meridiani.planum; 11-15-2007 at 04:40 AM.
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  #9  
Old 11-15-2007, 06:28 AM
tb2904 tb2904 is offline
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Default

My calculation -

Total Employment based visa: 140K
Country Limit: 9800 (7% of 140K)
EB2: 28.8% of total; for India it would be 2822 (28.8% of 9800)
Quarterly quota for India: 706 (assuming they distribute visas equally to all four quarters

USCIS have already used 38% of the visa for India and China i.e., 1072. It means that they have used the full quota for first quarter and about half quota for second quarter.

According to USCIS "It is hoped that the December retrogressions will return monthly number use within the target range. If not, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out. "

It means that there are still some pre-Jan 2002 cases that have not been assigned visa number. It doesn't look too good for second and third quarter either -- I think our hope is again the last quarter where they may distribute the unused visas to the oversubscribed countries.
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  #10  
Old 11-15-2007, 10:00 AM
singhsa3 singhsa3 is offline
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Default

I don't know about you guys but I am sick of it now..
What am I doing here, just wasting my valuable money, youth and energy

I feel like doing:

A protest Rally in New York

I refuse to accept the satus quo....
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  #11  
Old 11-15-2007, 10:08 AM
needhelp! needhelp! is offline
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Default Yes We Must Do Something!!!!!

Let us make our chapter membership strong, so that we can have protest rallies across the nation.
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  #12  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:15 AM
immi_seeker immi_seeker is offline
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Default 27% per quarter

Quote:
Originally Posted by tb2904 View Post
My calculation -

Total Employment based visa: 140K
Country Limit: 9800 (7% of 140K)
EB2: 28.8% of total; for India it would be 2822 (28.8% of 9800)
Quarterly quota for India: 706 (assuming they distribute visas equally to all four quarters

USCIS have already used 38% of the visa for India and China i.e., 1072. It means that they have used the full quota for first quarter and about half quota for second quarter.

According to USCIS "It is hoped that the December retrogressions will return monthly number use within the target range. If not, further retrogressions cannot be ruled out. "

It means that there are still some pre-Jan 2002 cases that have not been assigned visa number. It doesn't look too good for second and third quarter either -- I think our hope is again the last quarter where they may distribute the unused visas to the oversubscribed countries.

It was a general assumption that DOS releases only 27% of visas every quarter. Then how come USCIS is saying they have used up 38% of annual limit when even one quarter is not yet over..Or is that 27% assumption wrong ?
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  #13  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:15 AM
vjkypally vjkypally is offline
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Default How about fasting?

Friends,

How about fasting on thanksgiving day? The day Americans feast. Another Gandhian way of protest!!!We could all get together across different cities across the country and fast. I hope media will be around though on Thanksgiving.
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  #14  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:19 AM
singhsa3 singhsa3 is offline
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Default

It was most likely due to redistribution of unused visa by ROW countries. But who knows, USCIS has shown in past they are not very competent. May be they are still using slide rules to calculate these numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by immi_seeker View Post
It was a general assumption that DOS releases only 27% of visas every quarter. Then how come USCIS is saying they have used up 38% of annual limit when even one quarter is not yet over..Or is that 27% assumption wrong ?
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  #15  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:33 AM
BharatPremi BharatPremi is offline
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by vjkypally View Post
Friends,

How about fasting on thanksgiving day? The day Americans feast. Another Gandhian way of protest!!!We could all get together across different cities across the country and fast. I hope media will be around though on Thanksgiving.
- I am for it.
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