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  #3211  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:42 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon View Post
Teddy and other experts:
I know its too early, but what do you guys think of next month(Oct) bulletin?
Teddy - why do you say the pipeline buildup will be postponed till May 2012. Sorry if my question was naive, as Im not at top of these issues, other than browsing this thread for past couple of hours
I am thinking, its going to be another bulleting and someone will ask the same question...same waiting and same sh^*&^&t and different month.
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  #3212  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:49 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzc123 View Post
Anyone noticed that April 15 2007 was a Sunday. How and why would USCIS/DOS pick a Sunday as a cutoff date? to avoid any confusion? or are they confused themselves? or has this been a general trend by them to pick a weekend for cutoff-date?
Cutoff dates are typically either the 1st, 8th, 15th or 22nd of the month. So, based on the available supply count, they will cutoff to the closest date of the month.
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  #3213  
Old 08-09-2011, 06:16 PM
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Talking If 15th is Sunday, rest of the possible VB dates are also Sunday

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzc123 View Post
Anyone noticed that April 15 2007 was a Sunday. How and why would USCIS/DOS pick a Sunday as a cutoff date? to avoid any confusion? or are they confused themselves? or has this been a general trend by them to pick a weekend for cutoff-date?
They can only choose either dates as 1/8/15/22. If 15th falls on Sunday, then all the rest of these dates also falls on Sunday :-)
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  #3214  
Old 08-09-2011, 08:36 PM
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Default

With September visa bulletin, we have lots of angry and frustrated people. It is best time to attract them for advocacy and donation.
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  #3215  
Old 08-09-2011, 10:09 PM
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Default

Looks like creating a pipeline for EB2 I will be more of a political issue than a standard working procedure next fiscal year. USCIS can now somewhat control what files they want to clear. EB3 ROW is set up for a much larger spill over now. Maybe even EB3 I depending on how DOS interpret the spill over visa allocation by priority date.
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  #3216  
Old 08-09-2011, 10:42 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nj_03_2004 View Post
With September visa bulletin, we have lots of angry and frustrated people. It is best time to attract them for advocacy and donation.
I am curious. How does advocacy work apart from donatiion? Does it really help for all category or just EB2?
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  #3217  
Old 08-10-2011, 10:12 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chikna View Post
I am curious. How does advocacy work apart from donatiion? Does it really help for all category or just EB2?
IV does not work for any one category. IV works for the whole community.
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  #3218  
Old 08-10-2011, 10:35 AM
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Default I think we need to fix the calendar as well

I think we should push for fixing these kinds of bugs in the Julian calendar. The other calendar (Gregorian) was so much better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarry4gc View Post
They can only choose either dates as 1/8/15/22. If 15th falls on Sunday, then all the rest of these dates also falls on Sunday :-)
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  #3219  
Old 08-10-2011, 11:29 AM
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Default Final Thought

Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
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  #3220  
Old 08-10-2011, 12:39 PM
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Default Sounds right

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDix View Post
Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
Thats about correct. The economy was booming until 2008 Sept. Expect a huge number of approved I140 during that time. The potential AOS filers from Aug 15 2007 to Dec 31st 2007 would easily consume the approximately 16K worth of spillover visas+2.8K = 19K visas.
With the better understanding of the kazarian memo the Eb1 backlog would be cleared and they would resume their normal processing.~30K demand/year.
That leaves Spillover of ~16K from various categories to EB2IC.
The EB2C demand is less compared to EB2I and they should move forward compared to EB2I in first 2 quarters.
The situation for EB2 IC is indeed very dire. Looks like an entire year's visas for EB2IC can only help reach Jan 2008 for EB2IC for FY2012.
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  #3221  
Old 08-10-2011, 01:17 PM
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Default Right

Same priority month/year as you are. Your thought sounds about correct. Except that if they want to build a pipeline we may be in luck by mid 2012. That is a big IF though!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDix View Post
Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
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  #3222  
Old 08-10-2011, 01:26 PM
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Default

End of FY2011 seemed to be the best chance for creating that big pipeline since it seemed existing backlog through jul 2007 might be cleared. THe big movements earlier in the year did indicate that. Now that did not happen..I fail to see why the DoS will carry out any big advances in the bulletins in the coming FY. Expect small movements (one week or so) through most of FY 2012 (even chances of being U) and then fingers crossed during Q3,Q4. EB3 continues to be screwed, porting is the only hope. The self-proclaimed "Pundits" on other tracking sites will sure have a field day now predicting the heck out of this mess.
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  #3223  
Old 08-10-2011, 02:04 PM
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Default Movement

Correct. Short of a miracle, I don't see any big movement for 1st and 2nd quarters of FY 2012. My guesstimate on pipeline build is based on after the usage of Fall down from EB-1 and fall up from EB4 and 5 July 2012. I know these are all just as good as a dream but what the heck...let us atleast dream...

Quote:
Originally Posted by lostcause2007 View Post
End of FY2011 seemed to be the best chance for creating that big pipeline since it seemed existing backlog through jul 2007 might be cleared. THe big movements earlier in the year did indicate that. Now that did not happen..I fail to see why the DoS will carry out any big advances in the bulletins in the coming FY. Expect small movements (one week or so) through most of FY 2012 (even chances of being U) and then fingers crossed during Q3,Q4. EB3 continues to be screwed, porting is the only hope. The self-proclaimed "Pundits" on other tracking sites will sure have a field day now predicting the heck out of this mess.
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  #3224  
Old 08-10-2011, 03:42 PM
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds View Post
guess bcos the visa date was stuck at 08may06 for 9 months before it moved ahead, so this time its 04152007
USICIS had pipeline upto Jul-2007, still the date was stuck for 9 momnths. Still they have pipelene till Jul-2007. Since they do not have good estimation about fulure pipeline, what they will do ?
Will they build pipeline in 3rd Qtr?
or
The spill over will go to EB3 as there is no pipeline by 3rd Qtr?

Any idea ?
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  #3225  
Old 08-10-2011, 03:48 PM
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Default Question to Teddy

TK - I know you have done a lot of analysis. Do you know what % of those who are current in EB2I/C (until April 15 2007) have gotten their GC already?

I know there is a running thread that reports those who have got GC, but I am wondering as of this fiscal , end sept, how many more need to get GC's even though they are current.
This can have an impact on any date movement next year, correct?
Would any of the monthly/quarterly reports truly tell us these pending applicants. I would think the demand report sdhould but as we saw in a different thread there seems to be error in those numbers...

As an example if I am May 2006 but for some reason they are still revieiwng my files, and the review is completeed only in Dec 2011, then that applicant will actually be using a visa number from 2012. So that will reduce what we have available for EB2 next year, correct?

Just thoughts.. but curious enough to post them.
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